The Western church has abandoned its call to be salt and light in the world.
Somewhere along the way - in the last twenty years or so - the church surrendered the idea of speaking life into society - based on the concept that society is made of individuals, and individuals are in need of God's forgiveness and repentance - to the idea of blending into society and creating change from within.
This mirrors somewhat the idea of amillennialism (for those of you that dabble in Christian eschatology), the idea that there is not a millennial reign of Christ but rather that the redeemed usher in the Kingdom of God through their recreation of society in God's image. The Kingdom, in this case, is a sort of good infection (to use C.S. Lewis' terms) that ultimately creates the sort of society that God can return to - a sort of spiritual "yeast" transferred throughout the whole dough.
This is a lovely, heartfelt concept. It is also utterly wrong.
Christ rejects it. Nowhere in the New Testament does He ever give the impression that society - as a whole - will be redeemed or grow as His Kingdom grows. Yes, he does use the image of the mustard tree which "grows to fill the whole earth", but He never suggests that the spiritual Kingdom will become the equivalent of the societal Kingdom (pending His return, of course - See Matthew 24, Mark 13, Luke 21, Revelation).
History rejects it. Any society built on the idea of solely creating a better society without spiritual renewal has crashed. Server examples include The French Revolution, The Russian Revolution and resulting Soviet Union, The Chinese Revolution and resulting People's Republic of China, The Killing Fields of Cambodia. The wisdom of man always involves man's interpretation of what is good and right, which is subject to man's interpretation of what "good" really is without an objective standard.
Why? My theory is simply that we have embraced the world. We have decided that, like the world, there is no objective source of truth - The Bible in the case of Christian Church - and as such, in lieu of having a message of truth which is preceded by an accurate assessment and knowledge of our condition (e.g., sinners), all we have to offer is a message of fitting in and trying to remodel things from the inside. "If we fix it" the church seems to think, "they will accept our message".
This seems to me a great deal like the thought of the adolescent boy (oh, how I remember those days) thinking "If I just do this and this and this, she will like me." That almost never worked in practice, of course - she never ended up "liking me" - but somehow I continued to think this was a model for success.
Can an individual or a group change a society via working within the system? Of course they can . One fine example would be William Wilberforce, who spent his live working to end slavery in the British Empire (of course, keep in mind that the British Empire was at least nominally Christian and as such, there was some kind of consensus to work with). And the examples I listed above of revolutions gone bad demonstrate that a small dedicated band of people can really accomplish anything.
But here is the difference: those small bands of people or individuals who are not Christian have nothing which holds them back from acting in any way possible to reach their end, and when the end justifies the means almost anything is permissible. For the Christian (in theory), they are either bound to act within the limits of God's Word (thus objective truth) or to bend that truth in order to be "relevant" and fit into the world around them, which at best dulls their impact and at worst makes them the proverbial "useful idiots" that enable the destruction of everything they claim to stand for.
I do not have a right answer here, or at least not yet: the matter is a weighty one on which the whole of human history devolves (as measured in the lives of individuals) and it deserves a better answer than an introductory essay by a man who is neither a trained theologian or a trained philosopher. But it does seem critical to me in that, in this time of the weakening of societal bonds, economic instability, and a great sense throughout the land of "That which is not forbidden is permitted (and very little is forbidden)", the church has effectively disappeared as an independent force for proclaiming salvation and has turned into little more than another social movement which is less concerned with salvation and more concerned with being part of society.
Tuesday, July 21, 2020
Monday, July 20, 2020
On Considering A New Church
I have to be honest that I am finding myself on the downside of engagement with my current church body.
I am sure that The Plague of 2020 has not helped anything, of course. We have not met since March of this year and the church has gone completely online. While they have made the best of it, I find that watching church via TV is hardly the sort of engaging activity that church was meant to be.
But it goes a bit deeper than that.
While we initially joined because 1) The Ravishing Mrs. TB is employed there and 2) the sermons were truly more engaging, what I have found over time is that, simply, I miss the structure of a traditional church. They hold to some elements of traditional Christianity - communion at least once a month, the Lord's prayer occasionally, the Apostle's Creed occasionally - but for the rest are what one would consider to be a modern, non-denominational church.
Not that there is anything inherently wrong with that, of course. I do enjoy more upbeat music - but what I am finding I do not enjoy is the same sort of songs (I refuse to call them hymns) which largely seem to revolve around us instead of God (And repeat themselves. Endlessly.). I do enjoy slightly more modern sermons - except that I am finding that they tend to mirror the themes that are important to the pastor, not necessarily the words that are actually present in the Bible. I enjoy the church - but I am finding that I no longer fully fit in with what the church is and where it wants to go.
But the biggest question I find myself having to answer is "Am I a better or worse Christian from my time here?" The answer, I think, is no.
And that is an answer that simply cannot be allowed to stand.
So what am I doing? Well, due to The Plague I cannot really go anywhere - but I can do a lot of online research and reading. So I am experimenting. I am thinking deeply - or trying to think deeply, anyway - about what sort of Church I need to be in based on what I know my interests and my weaknesses to be (for example, I like tradition. I like theology. A "high" church service feeds my soul and its view of God's glory in a way that an ordinary church service does not). I am trying some different personal practices to see if those engage me more fully.
It is worth a consideration as (if and when we make the transition) this is likely the last time I will do this before I die. So I want to be certain.
But all I know right now is that - sooner or later - I will have to leave where I am now to preserve my faith or see it slowly slip away under a rising sense of disengagement and dis-ease.
I am sure that The Plague of 2020 has not helped anything, of course. We have not met since March of this year and the church has gone completely online. While they have made the best of it, I find that watching church via TV is hardly the sort of engaging activity that church was meant to be.
But it goes a bit deeper than that.
While we initially joined because 1) The Ravishing Mrs. TB is employed there and 2) the sermons were truly more engaging, what I have found over time is that, simply, I miss the structure of a traditional church. They hold to some elements of traditional Christianity - communion at least once a month, the Lord's prayer occasionally, the Apostle's Creed occasionally - but for the rest are what one would consider to be a modern, non-denominational church.
Not that there is anything inherently wrong with that, of course. I do enjoy more upbeat music - but what I am finding I do not enjoy is the same sort of songs (I refuse to call them hymns) which largely seem to revolve around us instead of God (And repeat themselves. Endlessly.). I do enjoy slightly more modern sermons - except that I am finding that they tend to mirror the themes that are important to the pastor, not necessarily the words that are actually present in the Bible. I enjoy the church - but I am finding that I no longer fully fit in with what the church is and where it wants to go.
But the biggest question I find myself having to answer is "Am I a better or worse Christian from my time here?" The answer, I think, is no.
And that is an answer that simply cannot be allowed to stand.
So what am I doing? Well, due to The Plague I cannot really go anywhere - but I can do a lot of online research and reading. So I am experimenting. I am thinking deeply - or trying to think deeply, anyway - about what sort of Church I need to be in based on what I know my interests and my weaknesses to be (for example, I like tradition. I like theology. A "high" church service feeds my soul and its view of God's glory in a way that an ordinary church service does not). I am trying some different personal practices to see if those engage me more fully.
It is worth a consideration as (if and when we make the transition) this is likely the last time I will do this before I die. So I want to be certain.
But all I know right now is that - sooner or later - I will have to leave where I am now to preserve my faith or see it slowly slip away under a rising sense of disengagement and dis-ease.
Sunday, July 19, 2020
Saturday, July 18, 2020
The Plague of 2020: Economic Impacts III (Winners)
In every economic downturn, there are always winners. Even in the worst of the worst, some things still do better - or merely "less badly" than others.
1) Grocery Stores: Up to the point that a supply chain completely collapses, grocery stores and grocery store like stores (the Big Box Supply Stores) are critical as almost no-one can supply their own food anymore. Even when almost everything else was shut down, grocery stores stayed open. These stores and the chains that support them - trucking, warehouses - will continue to work as long as there is food to supply and fuel to move the goods.
2) Food Suppliers: This takes any number of different forms, be they chicken processors or farms or bakeries. But just like with grocery stores, they have a desired good and as long as there is a market and fuel to get it there, they will be a demand.
3) Used Cars Sales: Not really a company but a portion of an industry, the spreading of any number of plagues via close quarters make public transit a less desirable option. Add to this the fact that for many, new cars have rapidly been priced out of the market, and suddenly used cars become an item of interest and value - perhaps not at the market price they once commanded, but surely more than new automobiles.
4) Streaming Entertainment: As many were/are trapped in their homes, they did the 20th and 21st Century quick reaction: They reached for their remote controls and turned on their devices to watch shows. Suddenly, the great transfer from movies theaters to streaming seems like a reality. This works, of course - as long as the streaming services continue to have new content to offer (like many other industries, much of the movie and television industry is localized in certain areas and shut down as well). This will work until, like the sports stations currently, all there is to watch is the equivalent of championships that occurred 7 years ago. Right up to that point (or a complete loss of power), people will turn to their streaming devices much as Americans once turned to the movie theaters, to forget their troubles for a while.
5) Hardware and Home Improvement Stores: People now have lots of time at home and an inability to go places (or lack the income to do so). Improving where you live at at time like this is one of the activities that can be done with only the cost of the materials (and your labor). We have certainly done so here, painting several rooms.
6) Independent Living Companies: This is a category (invented by me) to cover things as varied as seed companies, rural living companies (like Lehman's), and any sort of company that provides products or services that help one live in some way by becoming less dependent on the grid. As the economy continues to do poorly (and in my opinion, this will take years to dig out from), more and more people will - by necessity if not choice - have to start learning to do such things for themselves.
1) Grocery Stores: Up to the point that a supply chain completely collapses, grocery stores and grocery store like stores (the Big Box Supply Stores) are critical as almost no-one can supply their own food anymore. Even when almost everything else was shut down, grocery stores stayed open. These stores and the chains that support them - trucking, warehouses - will continue to work as long as there is food to supply and fuel to move the goods.
2) Food Suppliers: This takes any number of different forms, be they chicken processors or farms or bakeries. But just like with grocery stores, they have a desired good and as long as there is a market and fuel to get it there, they will be a demand.
3) Used Cars Sales: Not really a company but a portion of an industry, the spreading of any number of plagues via close quarters make public transit a less desirable option. Add to this the fact that for many, new cars have rapidly been priced out of the market, and suddenly used cars become an item of interest and value - perhaps not at the market price they once commanded, but surely more than new automobiles.
4) Streaming Entertainment: As many were/are trapped in their homes, they did the 20th and 21st Century quick reaction: They reached for their remote controls and turned on their devices to watch shows. Suddenly, the great transfer from movies theaters to streaming seems like a reality. This works, of course - as long as the streaming services continue to have new content to offer (like many other industries, much of the movie and television industry is localized in certain areas and shut down as well). This will work until, like the sports stations currently, all there is to watch is the equivalent of championships that occurred 7 years ago. Right up to that point (or a complete loss of power), people will turn to their streaming devices much as Americans once turned to the movie theaters, to forget their troubles for a while.
5) Hardware and Home Improvement Stores: People now have lots of time at home and an inability to go places (or lack the income to do so). Improving where you live at at time like this is one of the activities that can be done with only the cost of the materials (and your labor). We have certainly done so here, painting several rooms.
6) Independent Living Companies: This is a category (invented by me) to cover things as varied as seed companies, rural living companies (like Lehman's), and any sort of company that provides products or services that help one live in some way by becoming less dependent on the grid. As the economy continues to do poorly (and in my opinion, this will take years to dig out from), more and more people will - by necessity if not choice - have to start learning to do such things for themselves.
Friday, July 17, 2020
The Plague of 2020: Economic Impacts II (Sports)
More prophetical prognostication (Is that a phrase? It should be, and I hereby claim it) of The Plague of 2020 on Sports:
Sports, at least on the professional scale, is an ingrained, assumed part of our culture. Its tendrils go into so much: live events, radio, television, the InterWeb, retail (both brick and mortar and InterWeb). It is ubiquitous in our conversations and in our lives.
As a large public event, of course, sports is doomed as long as The Plague is here. Perhaps one can go with a social distancing aspect of the game or - as has been proposed - without any fans at all (based on the social distancing requirements, it would be something like every other row and every other seat, not ideal from a financial point of view. Plus, of course, longer lines and wearing a mask outdoors for 3-5 hours at a time. Hardly enticing). And that is the Tier 1 Professional sports - Tier 2, amateur leagues and minor leagues, would be in even worse shape.
Who is impacted? The players, not so much (at least immediately). But everyone associated with the players: coaches, trainers, sports doctors, those people that carry the water bottles around on the sidelines. Anyone involved with the media sporting aspect - writers, producers, announcers, camera and sound folk, commentators - after all, how long can you discuss sports that happened two years ago? And for the venues themselves, those that man the parking lots, food stands, stairways as ushers, groundskeepers, janitorial staff, those nice people in the jackets that I can never figure out precisely what they do but are obviously employed by the venue - again, all impacted by no sports occurring.
College programs are impacted as well, both directly by the Plague itself (colleges are already calling their fall seasons or greatly reducing them) and by the longer term impacts: if this goes on long enough, there will be no drafts, or they will decrease in their importance. Without a professional league, where will these players go (I sincerely hope that they have been diligently studying as well)? And lest you think this is merely a sports problem, popular college sports can fund entire departments at a college for a year. What happens when that money disappears?
Yet another impacted group is the local tax payers, who have (in many places) funded these very large sports venues with tax dollars. If these were bonds, the tax payers will continue to pay for years on a depreciating asset in a time of decreased income and inflation. If loans, the tax payers will continue to pay interest to a lender for an asset that they will not use or benefit from (unless they refuse to pay - which then impacts the lender...).
Another impacted area is that of all other sports not at the professional or college level. I cannot read this as well as I am not sure how it is being implemented. In a true "social distancing" situation, any sport that involves any sort of physical contact would be discontinued. This includes, in no particular order, football, baseball, basketball, soccer. Other sports - volleyball, track and field - would not be as impacted but would require some additional safeguards (for example, having fixed locations in volleyball or running races being "timed" victories by sending the runners out in individual packets or all other track and field athletes moving through a line and then retreating to their socially distanced waiting areas). Golf might fall into this as well, with single players out on the links, one per hole (groups, of course, only with socially distancing and masks - and how fun is 4-5 hours in the sun in masks going to be?).
So much of sports relies on close contact, something which is intrinsic to the nature of competition and risky in the nature of the Plague.
Taken to its logical extreme, lock downs, social distancing, and personal protection requirements will to some extent - partially or completely - enervate almost all sports to the point that at best they become much smaller in number and operation (to remain economically viable) or effectively disappear completely.
There is another mitigating factor, something which sports has not fully accounted for either: we have been (at least in the US) without professional sports for some 4 months now. And for the most part, we have managed to survive and find other things to fill our time. I wonder if, having broken the habit, many are going to be willing to reinvest their time and energy in something that that they have replaced or - given the cost of packages to watch and listen to such events - will be able to afford it.
Sports, at least on the professional scale, is an ingrained, assumed part of our culture. Its tendrils go into so much: live events, radio, television, the InterWeb, retail (both brick and mortar and InterWeb). It is ubiquitous in our conversations and in our lives.
As a large public event, of course, sports is doomed as long as The Plague is here. Perhaps one can go with a social distancing aspect of the game or - as has been proposed - without any fans at all (based on the social distancing requirements, it would be something like every other row and every other seat, not ideal from a financial point of view. Plus, of course, longer lines and wearing a mask outdoors for 3-5 hours at a time. Hardly enticing). And that is the Tier 1 Professional sports - Tier 2, amateur leagues and minor leagues, would be in even worse shape.
Who is impacted? The players, not so much (at least immediately). But everyone associated with the players: coaches, trainers, sports doctors, those people that carry the water bottles around on the sidelines. Anyone involved with the media sporting aspect - writers, producers, announcers, camera and sound folk, commentators - after all, how long can you discuss sports that happened two years ago? And for the venues themselves, those that man the parking lots, food stands, stairways as ushers, groundskeepers, janitorial staff, those nice people in the jackets that I can never figure out precisely what they do but are obviously employed by the venue - again, all impacted by no sports occurring.
College programs are impacted as well, both directly by the Plague itself (colleges are already calling their fall seasons or greatly reducing them) and by the longer term impacts: if this goes on long enough, there will be no drafts, or they will decrease in their importance. Without a professional league, where will these players go (I sincerely hope that they have been diligently studying as well)? And lest you think this is merely a sports problem, popular college sports can fund entire departments at a college for a year. What happens when that money disappears?
Yet another impacted group is the local tax payers, who have (in many places) funded these very large sports venues with tax dollars. If these were bonds, the tax payers will continue to pay for years on a depreciating asset in a time of decreased income and inflation. If loans, the tax payers will continue to pay interest to a lender for an asset that they will not use or benefit from (unless they refuse to pay - which then impacts the lender...).
Another impacted area is that of all other sports not at the professional or college level. I cannot read this as well as I am not sure how it is being implemented. In a true "social distancing" situation, any sport that involves any sort of physical contact would be discontinued. This includes, in no particular order, football, baseball, basketball, soccer. Other sports - volleyball, track and field - would not be as impacted but would require some additional safeguards (for example, having fixed locations in volleyball or running races being "timed" victories by sending the runners out in individual packets or all other track and field athletes moving through a line and then retreating to their socially distanced waiting areas). Golf might fall into this as well, with single players out on the links, one per hole (groups, of course, only with socially distancing and masks - and how fun is 4-5 hours in the sun in masks going to be?).
So much of sports relies on close contact, something which is intrinsic to the nature of competition and risky in the nature of the Plague.
Taken to its logical extreme, lock downs, social distancing, and personal protection requirements will to some extent - partially or completely - enervate almost all sports to the point that at best they become much smaller in number and operation (to remain economically viable) or effectively disappear completely.
There is another mitigating factor, something which sports has not fully accounted for either: we have been (at least in the US) without professional sports for some 4 months now. And for the most part, we have managed to survive and find other things to fill our time. I wonder if, having broken the habit, many are going to be willing to reinvest their time and energy in something that that they have replaced or - given the cost of packages to watch and listen to such events - will be able to afford it.
Thursday, July 16, 2020
The Plague of 2020: Economic Impacts I
One of the websites I have followed for some years now is dailyjobcuts.com, which is an aggregator of layoffs, closings, and bankruptcies. As you can imagine, it has been rather populated with bad news over the last few months.
As I have been following this and the continuing economic wreckage that is The Plague of 2020, I got to thinking about when - and if - we finally "come out" of this, what the world of business and economics will look like based on what we have seen so far. I do not know that this qualifies as "fun", but for me it is an interesting thought exercise. So my thoughts, or even semi-guesses, on what the world of business will look like next year (Warning: I am not a trained economist, merely an observer):
1) Offices - Office space will be widely available through two reasons. The first (and most unfortunate) is lay offs due to decreased business needs. The second is that many companies have discovered that many people can work from home. This not only reduces the company's overhead for office space, but also reduces the company's spend on those common items like electricity, water, common area expenses, and things as minor as coffee and supplies (which are all passed on to the employee working at home, by the by). Commercial Real Estate Investment companies and landlords will suffer as a result of this.
2) Restaurants - If this goes on long enough and we continue with the "on again, off again" model for indoor activities, continue to look for restaurants to shut down. But a potential additional outcome is the growth of the "Storefront" restaurant (also the take out restaurant, although I prefer the British term "Take Away"). Why should restaurant pay for costly real estate, utilities, and employees when they can just pay for a kitchen and an area to pay and pick up? Yes, many locales still allow patio or outdoor dining, but that only works when people want to be outdoors: no good in the summer in the American Southwest or in the Winter almost anywhere not in the American Southwest. Again, costly real estate. Commercial Real Estate Investment companies, landlords, servers/dishwashers, and certain kinds of suppliers (I cannot imagine the high end alcohol restaurant suppliers are doing well in this) will suffer.
3) Personal care (hair salons, nail salons, sports massage) - these may very well start to move towards smaller, private institutions with people beginning to work out of their home or just smaller footprints overall . The 10 stall hair salon may become a thing of the past (again, paying for real estate); the storefront hair salon where an appointment is made for a single operator (like the old style barbershops) or someone converting their garage into a small salon seems more likely. Again, Commercial Real Estate Investment companies and landlords most at risk, those hair/nail experts or masseuses that cannot find a way to flex most at risk.
4) Retail - This has seemingly become a complete wasteland, if you have at all been tracking the stores that are going away. Lots of large name companies are going into Chapter 11 bankruptcy, which here (in the US), means that they are reorganizing, not necessarily going out of business (but lots of folks just going out of business). Shopping is no longer a social activity and given the environment of economic uncertainty, lots of people are just not shopping (but are paying down their credit card debts, so good on everone). Also, depending on the industry, demand has dried up (not a lot of call for business suits or evening gowns at the moment).
In my own household, the model is very much if someone is going to a store, it is because they know exactly what they are going for (e.g., they now all shop like me). No more just rambling to see what is out there. Out, into the store to collect what is needed, and then straight back home - or online, shopping, of course.
Hard to say that there will be any good news here. Commercial Real Estate companies, landlords, property managers, retail employees, shipping companies - everyone is impacted here. There will be a growth in order fulfillment and delivery services for online companies of course (we can argue what that means later), but I suspect that this will not offset the other.
5) Group Activities - Here I am thinking about things that are largely entertainment based: bars, restaurants (but discussed above), indoor activity venues (bowling/arcades/movie theaters/general theaters/concert halls/trampoline parks), that sort of thing. And here, again, the news will not be good.
These require the same sorts of things that restaurants need: foot traffic, a reliable environment that always allows them to be open, disposable income that allows people to go there, and a willingness for people to be in close proximity to each other. The first three of those are at risk and the fourth in varying degrees, depending on where you are. Additionally, there is a fifth issue: these sorts of venues typically involve large capital upfront outlays and maintenance so their overall costs would tend to be higher.
I suspect the longer this goes, the more and more of these we will see disappear without anything to replace them (the risk of reopening by a new owner will be too high). They may never completely disappear, but what will undoubtedly be the new social distancing regime will mean that they can have fewer folks overall and those folks will have to plan ahead far more in advance. Most people will not make the effort.
Again, Commercial Real Estate companies, landlords, line employees, suppliers (largely food and alcohol suppliers I suspect) most impacted.
This is not meant to be a complete list but it is telling to me that certain groups - Real Estate Holders and those involved with real estate, retail/entry level employees, and supply chains - are possibly the most impacted. If I was in those industries, I would be seriously looking for a new career.
What do you think? Any impacts I missed? Any sub-groups I failed to call out?
As I have been following this and the continuing economic wreckage that is The Plague of 2020, I got to thinking about when - and if - we finally "come out" of this, what the world of business and economics will look like based on what we have seen so far. I do not know that this qualifies as "fun", but for me it is an interesting thought exercise. So my thoughts, or even semi-guesses, on what the world of business will look like next year (Warning: I am not a trained economist, merely an observer):
1) Offices - Office space will be widely available through two reasons. The first (and most unfortunate) is lay offs due to decreased business needs. The second is that many companies have discovered that many people can work from home. This not only reduces the company's overhead for office space, but also reduces the company's spend on those common items like electricity, water, common area expenses, and things as minor as coffee and supplies (which are all passed on to the employee working at home, by the by). Commercial Real Estate Investment companies and landlords will suffer as a result of this.
2) Restaurants - If this goes on long enough and we continue with the "on again, off again" model for indoor activities, continue to look for restaurants to shut down. But a potential additional outcome is the growth of the "Storefront" restaurant (also the take out restaurant, although I prefer the British term "Take Away"). Why should restaurant pay for costly real estate, utilities, and employees when they can just pay for a kitchen and an area to pay and pick up? Yes, many locales still allow patio or outdoor dining, but that only works when people want to be outdoors: no good in the summer in the American Southwest or in the Winter almost anywhere not in the American Southwest. Again, costly real estate. Commercial Real Estate Investment companies, landlords, servers/dishwashers, and certain kinds of suppliers (I cannot imagine the high end alcohol restaurant suppliers are doing well in this) will suffer.
3) Personal care (hair salons, nail salons, sports massage) - these may very well start to move towards smaller, private institutions with people beginning to work out of their home or just smaller footprints overall . The 10 stall hair salon may become a thing of the past (again, paying for real estate); the storefront hair salon where an appointment is made for a single operator (like the old style barbershops) or someone converting their garage into a small salon seems more likely. Again, Commercial Real Estate Investment companies and landlords most at risk, those hair/nail experts or masseuses that cannot find a way to flex most at risk.
4) Retail - This has seemingly become a complete wasteland, if you have at all been tracking the stores that are going away. Lots of large name companies are going into Chapter 11 bankruptcy, which here (in the US), means that they are reorganizing, not necessarily going out of business (but lots of folks just going out of business). Shopping is no longer a social activity and given the environment of economic uncertainty, lots of people are just not shopping (but are paying down their credit card debts, so good on everone). Also, depending on the industry, demand has dried up (not a lot of call for business suits or evening gowns at the moment).
In my own household, the model is very much if someone is going to a store, it is because they know exactly what they are going for (e.g., they now all shop like me). No more just rambling to see what is out there. Out, into the store to collect what is needed, and then straight back home - or online, shopping, of course.
Hard to say that there will be any good news here. Commercial Real Estate companies, landlords, property managers, retail employees, shipping companies - everyone is impacted here. There will be a growth in order fulfillment and delivery services for online companies of course (we can argue what that means later), but I suspect that this will not offset the other.
5) Group Activities - Here I am thinking about things that are largely entertainment based: bars, restaurants (but discussed above), indoor activity venues (bowling/arcades/movie theaters/general theaters/concert halls/trampoline parks), that sort of thing. And here, again, the news will not be good.
These require the same sorts of things that restaurants need: foot traffic, a reliable environment that always allows them to be open, disposable income that allows people to go there, and a willingness for people to be in close proximity to each other. The first three of those are at risk and the fourth in varying degrees, depending on where you are. Additionally, there is a fifth issue: these sorts of venues typically involve large capital upfront outlays and maintenance so their overall costs would tend to be higher.
I suspect the longer this goes, the more and more of these we will see disappear without anything to replace them (the risk of reopening by a new owner will be too high). They may never completely disappear, but what will undoubtedly be the new social distancing regime will mean that they can have fewer folks overall and those folks will have to plan ahead far more in advance. Most people will not make the effort.
Again, Commercial Real Estate companies, landlords, line employees, suppliers (largely food and alcohol suppliers I suspect) most impacted.
This is not meant to be a complete list but it is telling to me that certain groups - Real Estate Holders and those involved with real estate, retail/entry level employees, and supply chains - are possibly the most impacted. If I was in those industries, I would be seriously looking for a new career.
What do you think? Any impacts I missed? Any sub-groups I failed to call out?
Wednesday, July 15, 2020
Tuesday, July 14, 2020
A Sort of Progress
Yesterday, kind of surprisingly to me, The Ravishing Mrs. TB posted a statement on The Book of Face (she is there a lot more than I am these days) that knitting, sewing, macrame, counted cross stitching, cheese and yogurt making, herb and vegetable gardening, cooking, baking, and composting were all going on in our household over the last week and that if we could just learn to make soap, we would be in a position to move "to the woods" (by the woods, she means the Ranch of course).
Now, I have enough experience to know that this is not hardly at all enough to actually even get partially off the grid and away from civilization (I read your blogs. I know what is involved). And I also (freely) acknowledge that this does not cover the fact that everyone still likes their access to Streaming Movies and a plethora of different food options within a 15 minute drive. But I did find it somewhat hopeful that this sort of thinking was going on at all.
Sometimes we do not think our examples of living a different sort of life get noticed and we carry on with them, pleasing ourselves. That said, perhaps sometimes things rub off on others around us in ways that we do not know. It is a bit of a boost in a year that has largely been devoid of such things.
So I will continue to make my cheese and yogurt and garden (hoping against hope I get some sort of yield) and find other sorts of things - small things - that bring some level of tech free entertainment and independence. And believe that somehow, somewhere, this is leading to a greater future more in line with where I would like us to be.
Now, I have enough experience to know that this is not hardly at all enough to actually even get partially off the grid and away from civilization (I read your blogs. I know what is involved). And I also (freely) acknowledge that this does not cover the fact that everyone still likes their access to Streaming Movies and a plethora of different food options within a 15 minute drive. But I did find it somewhat hopeful that this sort of thinking was going on at all.
Sometimes we do not think our examples of living a different sort of life get noticed and we carry on with them, pleasing ourselves. That said, perhaps sometimes things rub off on others around us in ways that we do not know. It is a bit of a boost in a year that has largely been devoid of such things.
So I will continue to make my cheese and yogurt and garden (hoping against hope I get some sort of yield) and find other sorts of things - small things - that bring some level of tech free entertainment and independence. And believe that somehow, somewhere, this is leading to a greater future more in line with where I would like us to be.
Sunday, July 12, 2020
The Plague of 2020 And Schedules
One of the great changes - perhaps the greatest change - since the arrival of The Plague and its accompanying change in schedule - is the fact that my actual life schedule is approaching that of a "normal" human being.
The Cistercian Order had (and perhaps still has) a rather logical breakdown in the way a person should live their lives: 8 hours of prayer, 8 hours of work, 8 hours of sleep. Substitute "living" for "prayer" for we non-religious, and you have the makings of a good life.
So where has my schedule fallen apart in the past? Work. It has always been work.
The minimum full time workday for anyone in modern society, hourly or salary, is 8 hours. Add to that - for the salaried - that one is paid to complete tasks, not just for hours work. Without almost any effort at all, that 8 hours immediately spreads out.
My typical work day - pre- Plague - saw me leaving home at 0700, commuting to work (shortest commute in 24 years, only 20 minutes) - and working until 1800 or so. Lunch, once upon a time a separate endeavor, was crammed into the actual work day at my desk. Commuting - if I left at 1800 - took another 20-30 minutes, so we will say 1830. For those counting along at home, that is a little more than 8 hours.
This of course, impacted everything else. I would then try to have a life outside of work, which would then eat into my time allocated for sleep. On the whole I ended up tired and unrewarded in my personal life.
The Plague has brought things much closer to a form of balance.
The commute time has been the greatest change - it has changed to < 1 minute from 20 minutes as I amble my way to my new workspace, a hastily converted craft table which is now my effective "home office". That alone has given me back an hour of my day. Additionally, not being in the office has helped in another aspect as it is much more difficult for people to just call in or pop in for a quick question. All contact is completely managed through a computer, which is there for my convenience - it is much easier to manage communication through a screen.
My work day is not quite 8 hours yet on a regular basis - although there are days that it has been! -, but it looks a great deal closer to the ideal - and that has included a period of time which we can call "lunch" but now includes a period set aside every day for training or literature review. It is also forcing me to work more efficiently, which is in itself also not a bad development.
Now, to actually intake into my consciousness that I am one of those people that really requires 8 hours of sleep a night...
The Cistercian Order had (and perhaps still has) a rather logical breakdown in the way a person should live their lives: 8 hours of prayer, 8 hours of work, 8 hours of sleep. Substitute "living" for "prayer" for we non-religious, and you have the makings of a good life.
So where has my schedule fallen apart in the past? Work. It has always been work.
The minimum full time workday for anyone in modern society, hourly or salary, is 8 hours. Add to that - for the salaried - that one is paid to complete tasks, not just for hours work. Without almost any effort at all, that 8 hours immediately spreads out.
My typical work day - pre- Plague - saw me leaving home at 0700, commuting to work (shortest commute in 24 years, only 20 minutes) - and working until 1800 or so. Lunch, once upon a time a separate endeavor, was crammed into the actual work day at my desk. Commuting - if I left at 1800 - took another 20-30 minutes, so we will say 1830. For those counting along at home, that is a little more than 8 hours.
This of course, impacted everything else. I would then try to have a life outside of work, which would then eat into my time allocated for sleep. On the whole I ended up tired and unrewarded in my personal life.
The Plague has brought things much closer to a form of balance.
The commute time has been the greatest change - it has changed to < 1 minute from 20 minutes as I amble my way to my new workspace, a hastily converted craft table which is now my effective "home office". That alone has given me back an hour of my day. Additionally, not being in the office has helped in another aspect as it is much more difficult for people to just call in or pop in for a quick question. All contact is completely managed through a computer, which is there for my convenience - it is much easier to manage communication through a screen.
My work day is not quite 8 hours yet on a regular basis - although there are days that it has been! -, but it looks a great deal closer to the ideal - and that has included a period of time which we can call "lunch" but now includes a period set aside every day for training or literature review. It is also forcing me to work more efficiently, which is in itself also not a bad development.
Now, to actually intake into my consciousness that I am one of those people that really requires 8 hours of sleep a night...
My Life's Schedule In The Plague of 2020
We have now passed week 15 of Isolation in The Plague of 2020.
Our lives have taken a certain sort of schedule to them. The Ravishing Mrs. TB goes in to the office twice a week for work. I have set up shop in the craft area with my computer, where I type away unless I have a meeting in which case I go into the bedroom to converse.
Na Clann wander through the kitchen at various times of the morning (ah, the joy of being a student on a rather prolonged summer break) for coffee and then food.
Grocery shopping did happen weekly on Mondays until it was realized that Sunday evenings were the less crowded day to shop and thus that now seem to be the schedule. At least one other time a week, one or more venture out for some other sort of supply -clothing, crafts - that was not available at the grocery store.
I venture out to the gym and for Iai class and come straight home. Once a week I go to my volunteer job, get fuel, and perhaps venture out to my local used bookstore. Beyond that, I never leave home except for walks around the neighborhood.
It strikes me as odd that this has become the sum total of my traveling existence.
When do I think things will change? I really have not the slightest clue. My best estimate at this point is that we will not be returning to the office before the end of the year if at that, and most likely not after that (I suspect the Winter season will see a resurgence of The Plague. Add that to the Flu and no sensible company will want anyone back in the office). So maybe call it next March or April. All of the precautions will like stay in place until then. To the mind's eye, in such an environment everyone that is out there becomes a potential vector of infection.
But would I change? In reality this sort of life - with only the change of not working in the office - was one that I had already embraced before any of this happened. I might run out to the store a little more frequently for this or that, but that was all. This sort of living encompasses all of my life as it is was currently configured. And very little has changed beyond that.
In reviewing this, I realize how much I was already pulling away from the larger social world. The Plague of 2020 just accelerated a trend that already existed.
Saturday, July 11, 2020
Friday, July 10, 2020
Out Of Sorts
Is it wrong to confess to you that I feel a bit lost and out of sorts?
Coming back to "work" has been not quite the new adventure that I imagined it would be - at the moment, new tasks are slowly coming online and all of my previous tasks have been transferred over. This is, I suppose, not really all that different than starting a new job anywhere else - that initial first period of getting up to speed - except that in this case, perhaps mistakenly, I feel I should be more up to speed than I currently am.
Not that I am regretting the choice - I got pulled into a discussion from what would be my previous life this week and 30 minutes of that discussion was enough to remind me (rather forcibly) that this change really was for the best. Even I had wanted to stay, my heart is not longer in that line of work.
But what is it in, then?
That is what I find myself slogging through at the moment. I feel...well, lost.
The world around me is changing and morphing in ways I can scarcely understand or take in. My religion has gone off into places that 20 years ago I would have never thought possible. My job, as mentioned, has become completely different. The future I thought I was planning for is not the future that arrived at all, which means that the future that I might plan for 20 years hence will be even more different. It feels in some ways as if the world - my world - has rapidly collapsed in on itself in any number of ways since I came home from Japan in February of this year, be it my job, The Plague and all of its social and economic impacts, even just the world in general.
My dreams this week were all of me been in circumstances and situations but not having any ability to change or influence them. Art reflecting life indeed.
The difficulty- the thing I am trying to fight my way out of - is that I feel like any change I might make, any additional activities I might undertake, anything I might do will impact precisely nothing in the larger picture. That I have somehow now enter a racecourse that has no options and no directions except one - one I cannot see and one that I cannot change.
Perhaps this is all idle thought on my side and will change soon enough. But it puzzles me - I have never felt so powerless to change my condition of feeling out of sorts.
Coming back to "work" has been not quite the new adventure that I imagined it would be - at the moment, new tasks are slowly coming online and all of my previous tasks have been transferred over. This is, I suppose, not really all that different than starting a new job anywhere else - that initial first period of getting up to speed - except that in this case, perhaps mistakenly, I feel I should be more up to speed than I currently am.
Not that I am regretting the choice - I got pulled into a discussion from what would be my previous life this week and 30 minutes of that discussion was enough to remind me (rather forcibly) that this change really was for the best. Even I had wanted to stay, my heart is not longer in that line of work.
But what is it in, then?
That is what I find myself slogging through at the moment. I feel...well, lost.
The world around me is changing and morphing in ways I can scarcely understand or take in. My religion has gone off into places that 20 years ago I would have never thought possible. My job, as mentioned, has become completely different. The future I thought I was planning for is not the future that arrived at all, which means that the future that I might plan for 20 years hence will be even more different. It feels in some ways as if the world - my world - has rapidly collapsed in on itself in any number of ways since I came home from Japan in February of this year, be it my job, The Plague and all of its social and economic impacts, even just the world in general.
My dreams this week were all of me been in circumstances and situations but not having any ability to change or influence them. Art reflecting life indeed.
The difficulty- the thing I am trying to fight my way out of - is that I feel like any change I might make, any additional activities I might undertake, anything I might do will impact precisely nothing in the larger picture. That I have somehow now enter a racecourse that has no options and no directions except one - one I cannot see and one that I cannot change.
Perhaps this is all idle thought on my side and will change soon enough. But it puzzles me - I have never felt so powerless to change my condition of feeling out of sorts.
Thursday, July 09, 2020
The Collapse XLVII: On Being Alone
21 November 20XX
My
Dear Lucilius:
Well,
I have indeed been a slug-a-bed: no communication for two weeks? You
must have though me dead or worse (given the current state of
affairs, death is not really the worst thing that can occur).
Not
dead, thankfully. Saddened, perhaps. May I even say a bit
depressed? I had not given the thought I should have to what the
impact of being shut away from everyone for long periods of time can
do to the soul.
I
have lived here long enough to anticipate and know the winters, which
do not lend themselves to the sorts of “outings” that one finds
in less snowy and cold climes. I have also lived here long enough to
know that the opportunities for socialization remain much less than
in the urban areas – as you will recall, this was actually one of
the reasons that I moved here.
What
I had not anticipated – thought about perhaps, even pondered –
was what happens when civilization effectively hits the “Pause”
button.
Having
the option to go out or not go out, to shop or not to shop, to listen
and watch or turn off, is quite a different thing than not having the
option to do those things at all. Even before, there was always the
option to go to the town or city for shopping and a bookstore and a
meal or coffee, to turn on the radio or the InterWeb at my leisure to
listen to the news of the day or music or anything that happened to
catch my fancy.
None
of that exists now, of course. Certainly not the cities and shopping
and dining and only occasionally can one find a radio station
transmitting – and they hardly transmit the sorts of things that
raise the spirit. The InterWeb still occasionally sparks on as well
– but again, who wants bad news from all over when one has bad news
at home?
I
would say I am fortunate in that I have a community so I occasionally
still see someone – but even that is becoming more and more of a
rare event. Yes, the snow on the ground does not move things
forward, but going out represents time and energy and calories that
one might need later – as well as the risk of sickness or accident
which, with no immediate medical aid available, presents its own sets
of risks.
It
may sound to you that I am complaining of my conditions – I am not.
I am extremely fortunate even still: I have a roof over my head and
heat and water and food with every belief that I shall make it to the
other side of this event (as opposed to living in an urban area,
where I imagine my chances would be much worse). What I am doing is
coming to the realization that keeping ourselves “bunkered in”
while the world moves on outside of us does something to the soul,
something that I wonder if any of us anticipated outside of
researchers that studied such things and published in obscure
journals.
It
is one thing to isolate by choice. It is another to be isolated not
by choice, by command or by circumstances. The first is based on
freedom of action. The second is based on the tyranny of
circumstances which gives neither an end date nor a hint of relief.
We
may yet survive this Lucilius. What I wonder is what we will find –
not in terms of crumbling ruins and defunct technology – but in
terms of the souls of those that remain. Will we seek out community
again? Will we know what that means? Or will we continue to only
have small touch points as we have forgotten how and what it means to
socialize?
Your
Obedient Servant, Seneca
Wednesday, July 08, 2020
Dating The Plague of 2020, Round Two
Did you ever have one of those dating relationships where you felt like things were not going well and were not going to end well, but somehow you stuck with it in the unsustainable hope that things were somehow - dare I use the word "magically" - going to get better? That is what the world feels like right now to me: this constant sense that things are somehow just not quite right and are not getting "more right" any time in the future.
The lurch back and forth between opening and non-opening is one example. Things are going fine - wait, things are not going so fine so hold on. We are not sure when things are really going to go fine, so plan - but do not really plan (if you are business that depends on knowing what the situation will be, this is a killer, and something that will quickly convince you to just stay out of business). And oh, once we decide to open things up, better get out there and spend, spend, spend because you know - support your local economy and all.
Or the reality that the shutdowns continue to have an impact. Borepatch has a rather interesting simple state of the world note, where a bike shop that has been in business for 50 years is going out of business simply because they can no longer get any parts because the supply chain has given out from the shutdowns world wide. And another contributor on his site, notes the same things in home improvement store. These are the sorts of things you do not notice until you go to use them yourselves.
People have asked when I think I am going "back to the office". I tell them I sincerely doubt it will be before next year. My math is simple: We are now at July. We are in a place that has just gone back under the lock down so I expect that we will continue to "work from home" for much longer - and if we reach November, that is practically the end of the year with vacations. And although the death rate from The Plague seems to be sinking, it still has potential long term impacts we are continuing to come to understand so who wants to take the risk? (Add to that the fact that by the time Winter comes back around we will have perhaps the second wave to deal with as well as our regularly scheduled flu season.)
By that time we will have been "out of the office" for 9 months - can anyone, given what time of year it will be, think that coming back together in the depths of winter will be a good idea?
Add to this the general unrest, uncertainty around personal economics ("Do I have a job? Will I have a job?"), the eventual inflation that will hit when our propensity to invent money out of thin air catches up with us and the counter-strike when someone suggests we need to "raise taxes" to pay for all this, and all of a sudden that highly uncomfortable relationship becomes one that we cannot dump quickly enough.
I will not say it will not be interesting, because as someone who observes the folly of nations and states this will be writing grist for the mill for years to come. I will say that, if we are so fortunate to come out of it, it will scar generations the way that one bad relationship scars our love life for ever.
The lurch back and forth between opening and non-opening is one example. Things are going fine - wait, things are not going so fine so hold on. We are not sure when things are really going to go fine, so plan - but do not really plan (if you are business that depends on knowing what the situation will be, this is a killer, and something that will quickly convince you to just stay out of business). And oh, once we decide to open things up, better get out there and spend, spend, spend because you know - support your local economy and all.
Or the reality that the shutdowns continue to have an impact. Borepatch has a rather interesting simple state of the world note, where a bike shop that has been in business for 50 years is going out of business simply because they can no longer get any parts because the supply chain has given out from the shutdowns world wide. And another contributor on his site, notes the same things in home improvement store. These are the sorts of things you do not notice until you go to use them yourselves.
People have asked when I think I am going "back to the office". I tell them I sincerely doubt it will be before next year. My math is simple: We are now at July. We are in a place that has just gone back under the lock down so I expect that we will continue to "work from home" for much longer - and if we reach November, that is practically the end of the year with vacations. And although the death rate from The Plague seems to be sinking, it still has potential long term impacts we are continuing to come to understand so who wants to take the risk? (Add to that the fact that by the time Winter comes back around we will have perhaps the second wave to deal with as well as our regularly scheduled flu season.)
By that time we will have been "out of the office" for 9 months - can anyone, given what time of year it will be, think that coming back together in the depths of winter will be a good idea?
Add to this the general unrest, uncertainty around personal economics ("Do I have a job? Will I have a job?"), the eventual inflation that will hit when our propensity to invent money out of thin air catches up with us and the counter-strike when someone suggests we need to "raise taxes" to pay for all this, and all of a sudden that highly uncomfortable relationship becomes one that we cannot dump quickly enough.
I will not say it will not be interesting, because as someone who observes the folly of nations and states this will be writing grist for the mill for years to come. I will say that, if we are so fortunate to come out of it, it will scar generations the way that one bad relationship scars our love life for ever.
Tuesday, July 07, 2020
Monday, July 06, 2020
Branch And Flow
If you have been a reader of this blog for any period of time, you know that one of the great struggles of my life has been the fact that for the last 11 years I have been a number of states removed from where I actually want to be - The Ranch - and even longer years - 24 if you have your calendar handy - since it was more than a 30 minute drive. This has been a constant background theme to my life, this wanting to be in one place - nay, feeling that one is called to one place - while being away somewhere else.
It leaves a hole in your soul, given enough time and energy. I understand that not everyone has this particular sense of being tied to one place, especially a place which one may not have been at or around for years - but for me at least, this place is a refuge from the world, the sort of thing that (living in an urban area as I currently do) I see people crying out for in theory, while in practice all they do is continue to double down on a life style that is resource intensive, rather full of people, and pushing out the darkness, silence, and nature that they proclaim they want more of - in other words, the hypocrisy of acting one way while proclaiming another.
This thought of taking a different path became bothersome to me over the last week - for various and sundry reasons the need to be back here has become more intensive, not less, over the more recent years and has weighed heavily on me. It weighed heavily on me as I walked earlier this week and came across The Creek.
The Creek, as I have mentioned, does not itself run across our property (would that it did) but is on the deeded road to our property - thus, it is something that we will always have access to. It is a creek similar to the one I grow up near as a child: not particular deep or full, running across stones and mud and gravel, filled with blackberries on either side drinking in the moisture, under tall oaks and pines, inhabited by water skimmers and crawdads (if these are called Water Skaters and Crayfish by you, it is not so among us rural peasantry). It has a small island accessible from the road with a couples of skips across stones and a gravel bar, inhabited by a lone pine and ferns and some sort of flowering grass and the resident blackberry (now cut out):
As I sat there, looking around and listening to the stream burbling away and feeling (as I often do) this sense of being conflicted, I happened to pay attention to the culverts you see there - three in total, running the water under the stream and into the pool until it makes its way around the island. Three separate entrances leading to two flows. And then I looked downstream:
After the island, there is only one stream heading out. The flows are joined and one cannot tell what the difference is between the two.
In this, I suddenly realized, is wisdom.
Streams separate and flow in different directions, sometimes in ways and paths we had not intended. But at some point, they come back together as well and from that point on, it is impossible to tell the difference.
Plan, yes. Do what you need to, of course. But do not surrender the belief that every stream, every branch, leads away from where you are trying to get to. The stream continues to flow on.
Sunday, July 05, 2020
A Few Words From...Demosthenes
"Virtue? You runnagate; what have you or your family to do with virtue? How do you distinguish between good and evil report? Where and how did you qualify as a moralist? Where did you get your right to talk about education? No really educated man would use such language about himself, but would rather blush to hear it from others; but people like you, who make stupid pretensions to the culture of which they are utterly destitute, succeed in disgusting everybody whenever they open their lips, but never in making the impression they desire" - "On The Crown", 330 B.C.
"...that a democracy is the most unstable and capricious thing in the world, like a restless wave of the sea ruffled by the breeze as chance will have it. One man comes, another goes; no one attends to, or even remembers, the common weal." - "On The Embassy", 343 B.C.
"...that a democracy is the most unstable and capricious thing in the world, like a restless wave of the sea ruffled by the breeze as chance will have it. One man comes, another goes; no one attends to, or even remembers, the common weal." - "On The Embassy", 343 B.C.
(Demosthenes Practicing Oratory, Jean-Jules-Antoine Lecomte du Nouy)
Saturday, July 04, 2020
2020 - The Declaration Of Independence
Since 2012 I have been publishing the Declaration of Independence every year on July 4th. I have to admit that I post it this year with some reluctance as we seem farther away than ever from the having a unified nation-state, which was one of the points of the document. I post it this in year in hopes that all can reflect on what being united actually means.
Or, perhaps, what independence and freedom really mean.
When, in the course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another, and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the laws of nature and of nature's God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.
We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable rights, that among these are life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. That to secure these rights, governments are instituted among men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed. That whenever any form of government becomes destructive to these ends, it is the right of the people to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their safety and happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shown that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such government, and to provide new guards for their future security. --Such has been the patient sufferance of these colonies; and such is now the necessity which constrains them to alter their former systems of government. The history of the present King of Great Britain is a history of repeated injuries and usurpations, all having in direct object the establishment of an absolute tyranny over these states. To prove this, let facts be submitted to a candid world.
He has refused his assent to laws, the most wholesome and necessary for the public good.
He has forbidden his governors to pass laws of immediate and pressing importance, unless suspended in their operation till his assent should be obtained, and when so suspended, he has utterly neglected to attend to them.
He has refused to pass other laws for the accommodation of large districts of people, unless those people would relinquish the right of representation in the legislature, a right inestimable to them and formidable to tyrants only.
He has called together legislative bodies at places unusual, uncomfortable, and distant from the depository of their public records, for the sole purpose of fatiguing them into compliance with his measures.
He has dissolved representative houses repeatedly, for opposing with manly firmness his invasions on the rights of the people.
He has refused for a long time, after such dissolutions, to cause others to be elected; whereby the legislative powers, incapable of annihilation, have returned to the people at large for their exercise; the state remaining in the meantime exposed to all the dangers of invasion from without, and convulsions within.
He has endeavored to prevent the population of these states; for that purpose obstructing the laws for naturalization of foreigners; refusing to pass others to encourage their migration hither, and raising the conditions of new appropriations of lands.
He has obstructed the administration of justice, by refusing his assent to laws for establishing judiciary powers.
He has made judges dependent on his will alone, for the tenure of their offices, and the amount and payment of their salaries.
He has erected a multitude of new offices, and sent hither swarms of officers to harass our people, and eat out their substance.
He has kept among us, in times of peace, standing armies without the consent of our legislature.
He has affected to render the military independent of and superior to civil power.
He has combined with others to subject us to a jurisdiction foreign to our constitution, and unacknowledged by our laws; giving his assent to their acts of pretended legislation:
For quartering large bodies of armed troops among us:
For protecting them, by mock trial, from punishment for any murders which they should commit on the inhabitants of these states:
For cutting off our trade with all parts of the world:
For imposing taxes on us without our consent:
For depriving us in many cases, of the benefits of trial by jury:
For transporting us beyond seas to be tried for pretended offenses:
For abolishing the free system of English laws in a neighboring province, establishing therein an arbitrary government, and enlarging its boundaries so as to render it at once an example and fit instrument for introducing the same absolute rule in these colonies:
For taking away our charters, abolishing our most valuable laws, and altering fundamentally the forms of our governments:
For suspending our own legislatures, and declaring themselves invested with power to legislate for us in all cases whatsoever.
He has abdicated government here, by declaring us out of his protection and waging war against us.
He has plundered our seas, ravaged our coasts, burned our towns, and destroyed the lives of our people.
He is at this time transporting large armies of foreign mercenaries to complete the works of death, desolation and tyranny, already begun with circumstances of cruelty and perfidy scarcely paralleled in the most barbarous ages, and totally unworthy the head of a civilized nation.
He has constrained our fellow citizens taken captive on the high seas to bear arms against their country, to become the executioners of their friends and brethren, or to fall themselves by their hands.
He has excited domestic insurrections amongst us, and has endeavored to bring on the inhabitants of our frontiers, the merciless Indian savages, whose known rule of warfare, is undistinguished destruction of all ages, sexes and conditions.
In every stage of these oppressions we have petitioned for redress in the most humble terms: our repeated petitions have been answered only by repeated injury. A prince, whose character is thus marked by every act which may define a tyrant, is unfit to be the ruler of a free people.
Nor have we been wanting in attention to our British brethren. We have warned them from time to time of attempts by their legislature to extend an unwarrantable jurisdiction over us. We have reminded them of the circumstances of our emigration and settlement here. We have appealed to their native justice and magnanimity, and we have conjured them by the ties of our common kindred to disavow these usurpations, which, would inevitably interrupt our connections and correspondence. They too have been deaf to the voice of justice and of consanguinity. We must, therefore, acquiesce in the necessity, which denounces our separation, and hold them, as we hold the rest of mankind, enemies in war, in peace friends.
We, therefore, the representatives of the United States of America, in General Congress, assembled, appealing to the Supreme Judge of the world for the rectitude of our intentions, do, in the name, and by the authority of the good people of these colonies, solemnly publish and declare, that these united colonies are, and of right ought to be free and independent states; that they are absolved from all allegiance to the British Crown, and that all political connection between them and the state of Great Britain, is and ought to be totally dissolved; and that as free and independent states, they have full power to levy war, conclude peace, contract alliances, establish commerce, and to do all other acts and things which independent states may of right do. And for the support of this declaration, with a firm reliance on the protection of Divine Providence, we mutually pledge to each other our lives, our fortunes and our sacred honor.
New Hampshire: Josiah Bartlett, William Whipple, Matthew Thornton
Massachusetts: John Hancock, Samuel Adams, John Adams, Robert Treat Paine, Elbridge Gerry
Rhode Island: Stephen Hopkins, William Ellery
Connecticut: Roger Sherman, Samuel Huntington, William Williams, Oliver Wolcott
New York: William Floyd, Philip Livingston, Francis Lewis, Lewis Morris
New Jersey: Richard Stockton, John Witherspoon, Francis Hopkinson, John Hart, Abraham Clark
Pennsylvania: Robert Morris, Benjamin Rush, Benjamin Franklin, John Morton, George Clymer, James Smith, George Taylor, James Wilson, George Ross
Delaware: Caesar Rodney, George Read, Thomas McKean
Maryland: Samuel Chase, William Paca, Thomas Stone, Charles Carroll of Carrollton
Virginia: George Wythe, Richard Henry Lee, Thomas Jefferson, Benjamin Harrison, Thomas Nelson, Jr., Francis Lightfoot Lee, Carter Braxton
North Carolina: William Hooper, Joseph Hewes, John Penn
South Carolina: Edward Rutledge, Thomas Heyward, Jr., Thomas Lynch, Jr., Arthur Middleton
Georgia: Button Gwinnett, Lyman Hall, George Walton
Source: The Pennsylvania Packet, July 8, 1776
Or, perhaps, what independence and freedom really mean.
When, in the course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another, and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the laws of nature and of nature's God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.
We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable rights, that among these are life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. That to secure these rights, governments are instituted among men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed. That whenever any form of government becomes destructive to these ends, it is the right of the people to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their safety and happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shown that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such government, and to provide new guards for their future security. --Such has been the patient sufferance of these colonies; and such is now the necessity which constrains them to alter their former systems of government. The history of the present King of Great Britain is a history of repeated injuries and usurpations, all having in direct object the establishment of an absolute tyranny over these states. To prove this, let facts be submitted to a candid world.
He has refused his assent to laws, the most wholesome and necessary for the public good.
He has forbidden his governors to pass laws of immediate and pressing importance, unless suspended in their operation till his assent should be obtained, and when so suspended, he has utterly neglected to attend to them.
He has refused to pass other laws for the accommodation of large districts of people, unless those people would relinquish the right of representation in the legislature, a right inestimable to them and formidable to tyrants only.
He has called together legislative bodies at places unusual, uncomfortable, and distant from the depository of their public records, for the sole purpose of fatiguing them into compliance with his measures.
He has dissolved representative houses repeatedly, for opposing with manly firmness his invasions on the rights of the people.
He has refused for a long time, after such dissolutions, to cause others to be elected; whereby the legislative powers, incapable of annihilation, have returned to the people at large for their exercise; the state remaining in the meantime exposed to all the dangers of invasion from without, and convulsions within.
He has endeavored to prevent the population of these states; for that purpose obstructing the laws for naturalization of foreigners; refusing to pass others to encourage their migration hither, and raising the conditions of new appropriations of lands.
He has obstructed the administration of justice, by refusing his assent to laws for establishing judiciary powers.
He has made judges dependent on his will alone, for the tenure of their offices, and the amount and payment of their salaries.
He has erected a multitude of new offices, and sent hither swarms of officers to harass our people, and eat out their substance.
He has kept among us, in times of peace, standing armies without the consent of our legislature.
He has affected to render the military independent of and superior to civil power.
He has combined with others to subject us to a jurisdiction foreign to our constitution, and unacknowledged by our laws; giving his assent to their acts of pretended legislation:
For quartering large bodies of armed troops among us:
For protecting them, by mock trial, from punishment for any murders which they should commit on the inhabitants of these states:
For cutting off our trade with all parts of the world:
For imposing taxes on us without our consent:
For depriving us in many cases, of the benefits of trial by jury:
For transporting us beyond seas to be tried for pretended offenses:
For abolishing the free system of English laws in a neighboring province, establishing therein an arbitrary government, and enlarging its boundaries so as to render it at once an example and fit instrument for introducing the same absolute rule in these colonies:
For taking away our charters, abolishing our most valuable laws, and altering fundamentally the forms of our governments:
For suspending our own legislatures, and declaring themselves invested with power to legislate for us in all cases whatsoever.
He has abdicated government here, by declaring us out of his protection and waging war against us.
He has plundered our seas, ravaged our coasts, burned our towns, and destroyed the lives of our people.
He is at this time transporting large armies of foreign mercenaries to complete the works of death, desolation and tyranny, already begun with circumstances of cruelty and perfidy scarcely paralleled in the most barbarous ages, and totally unworthy the head of a civilized nation.
He has constrained our fellow citizens taken captive on the high seas to bear arms against their country, to become the executioners of their friends and brethren, or to fall themselves by their hands.
He has excited domestic insurrections amongst us, and has endeavored to bring on the inhabitants of our frontiers, the merciless Indian savages, whose known rule of warfare, is undistinguished destruction of all ages, sexes and conditions.
In every stage of these oppressions we have petitioned for redress in the most humble terms: our repeated petitions have been answered only by repeated injury. A prince, whose character is thus marked by every act which may define a tyrant, is unfit to be the ruler of a free people.
Nor have we been wanting in attention to our British brethren. We have warned them from time to time of attempts by their legislature to extend an unwarrantable jurisdiction over us. We have reminded them of the circumstances of our emigration and settlement here. We have appealed to their native justice and magnanimity, and we have conjured them by the ties of our common kindred to disavow these usurpations, which, would inevitably interrupt our connections and correspondence. They too have been deaf to the voice of justice and of consanguinity. We must, therefore, acquiesce in the necessity, which denounces our separation, and hold them, as we hold the rest of mankind, enemies in war, in peace friends.
We, therefore, the representatives of the United States of America, in General Congress, assembled, appealing to the Supreme Judge of the world for the rectitude of our intentions, do, in the name, and by the authority of the good people of these colonies, solemnly publish and declare, that these united colonies are, and of right ought to be free and independent states; that they are absolved from all allegiance to the British Crown, and that all political connection between them and the state of Great Britain, is and ought to be totally dissolved; and that as free and independent states, they have full power to levy war, conclude peace, contract alliances, establish commerce, and to do all other acts and things which independent states may of right do. And for the support of this declaration, with a firm reliance on the protection of Divine Providence, we mutually pledge to each other our lives, our fortunes and our sacred honor.
New Hampshire: Josiah Bartlett, William Whipple, Matthew Thornton
Massachusetts: John Hancock, Samuel Adams, John Adams, Robert Treat Paine, Elbridge Gerry
Rhode Island: Stephen Hopkins, William Ellery
Connecticut: Roger Sherman, Samuel Huntington, William Williams, Oliver Wolcott
New York: William Floyd, Philip Livingston, Francis Lewis, Lewis Morris
New Jersey: Richard Stockton, John Witherspoon, Francis Hopkinson, John Hart, Abraham Clark
Pennsylvania: Robert Morris, Benjamin Rush, Benjamin Franklin, John Morton, George Clymer, James Smith, George Taylor, James Wilson, George Ross
Delaware: Caesar Rodney, George Read, Thomas McKean
Maryland: Samuel Chase, William Paca, Thomas Stone, Charles Carroll of Carrollton
Virginia: George Wythe, Richard Henry Lee, Thomas Jefferson, Benjamin Harrison, Thomas Nelson, Jr., Francis Lightfoot Lee, Carter Braxton
North Carolina: William Hooper, Joseph Hewes, John Penn
South Carolina: Edward Rutledge, Thomas Heyward, Jr., Thomas Lynch, Jr., Arthur Middleton
Georgia: Button Gwinnett, Lyman Hall, George Walton
Source: The Pennsylvania Packet, July 8, 1776
Friday, July 03, 2020
A Summer's Walk 2020 Walk Part II
Today's walk was North towards the Upper Meadow.
You will remember these gentlemen from yesterday...
The Upper Meadow:
Same spot as the previous picture, looking down towards the Lower Meadow:
The Upper Meadow from above:
I have no idea what the actual name of this plant is. I have always called it Tarweed. I remember a time when I was very young and my father and my great uncle and I would go around the property and he would just do controlled burns on this.
Surprised two turkey hens and their brood:
The gentleman that keeps the cattle has a small lumber yard and sawmill on the property. Thanks to the cutting for the power line clearance, there are plenty of logs:
The Upper Corner:
I know I do this every year, but the area in front of the fence line has been mowed and managed. The area behind the fence line has not. Guess which part will go up with the intensity of a furnace in the event of a forest fire? This is why you manage forests, people:
Looking out towards the Upper Meadow:
Thursday, July 02, 2020
A Summer's Walk 2020
Today I took my regular "Down The Southwest Road" Walk. This road is not the road we actually use, but instead the deeded road to the Ranch.
Looking out over the Middle Meadow:
Road next to the Lower Meadow:
Bear Scat. For comparison, this is the size of my fist:
Lower Meadow:
Most of the Spring Wild flowers are gone, but a few remain:
Always two roads diverging in the woods...:
This was clear cut for the lines two years ago. Light and water work magic in the forest:
The blackberries are taking over:
Next to the road, this log has a series of small items on it. I have no idea why these offerings are there:
The Creek: Sadly this is not on our land as it is the only year round creek locally.
Heading Uphill:
A nice reminder on the side of the road:
More wildflowers:
The blackberries are starting to put on size:
Flowers waiting for the sun:
Determined Fungi slowly taking over a tree stump:
Local politicians observed at a meeting (Actually, that is a lie: Wild Turkeys are far smarter than any politician I am aware of):
Wednesday, July 01, 2020
Lies And Truth
I am only vaguely aware of Claire Wolfe, a long time Libertarian (authoress, apparently, of 101 Things to Do 'Til the Revolution, which I have also vaguely heard of but now may have to buy). It is the wonder of the InterWeb really: I got to there from somewhere else, which sent me to somewhere else, which sent me to her website, which left me reading their for an hour.
She, in turn, sent me to an essay by Aleksander Solzhenitsyn (whom I am slightly more familiar with, although again I apparently should be more so). Solzhenitsyn, as you may recall, is the author of The Gulag Archipelago and One Day In the Life of Ivan Denisovich, a critic of the Soviet Union, sent to the gulag (1945-1953), and eventual luminary on freedom and critic of the West's failures on fredom (and perhaps, also, a prophet on what would happen after the West failed).
On February 12, 1974 (The day he was arrested and eventually sent to what was then West Germany), an essay was published by him called "Live Not By Lies" (quoted by Claire Wolfe). The essay is a quiet but strong stance about the role of the individual in a culture that is doing everything in its power to squash freedom of thought and speech and demand conformity - something, I think which many of us are familiar with. It matches in tone some of the writings of Vaclav Havel, the Czech dissident playwright who was also jailed for his beliefs and writings.
The following quotes portions, quite simply, burned a hole in my soul.
"When violence intrudes into peaceful life, its face glows with self-confidence, as if it were carrying a banner and shouting: “I am violence. Run away, make way for me—I will crush you.” But violence quickly grows old. And it has lost confidence in itself, and in order to maintain a respectable face it summons falsehood as its ally—since violence lays its ponderous paw not every day and not on every shoulder. It demands from us only obedience to lies and daily participation in lies—all loyalty lies in that.
And the simplest and most accessible key to our self-neglected liberation lies right here: Personal non-participation in lies. Though lies conceal everything, though lies embrace everything, but not with any help from me.
This opens a breach in the imaginary encirclement caused by our inaction. It is the easiest thing to do for us, but the most devastating for the lies. Because when people renounce lies it simply cuts short their existence. Like an infection, they can exist only in a living organism.
We do not exhort ourselves. We have not sufficiently matured to march into the squares and shout the truth our loud or to express aloud what we think. It's not necessary.
It's dangerous. But let us refuse to say that which we do not think.
This is our path, the easiest and most accessible one, which takes into account out inherent cowardice, already well rooted. And it is much easier—it's dangerous even to say this—than the sort of civil disobedience which Gandhi advocated.
Our path is to talk away from the gangrenous boundary. If we did not paste together the dead bones and scales of ideology, if we did not sew together the rotting rags, we would be astonished how quickly the lies would be rendered helpless and subside.
That which should be naked would then really appear naked before the whole world."
There is a problem, says Solzhenitsyn, a problem which is originally caused by violence but propagated by lies. It is the sort of thing that civil disobedience will not solve. But there is an easier, but more challenging path:
"So in our timidity, let each of us make a choice: Whether consciously, to remain a servant of falsehood—of course, it is not out of inclination, but to feed one's family, that one raises his children in the spirit of lies—or to shrug off the lies and become an honest man worthy of respect both by one's children and contemporaries.
And from that day onward he:
But there are no loopholes for anybody who wants to be honest. On any given day any one of us will be confronted with at least one of the above-mentioned choices even in the most secure of the technical sciences. Either truth or falsehood: Toward spiritual independence or toward spiritual servitude.
And he who is not sufficiently courageous even to defend his soul—don't let him be proud of his “progressive” views, don't let him boast that he is an academician or a people's artist, a merited figure, or a general—let him say to himself: I am in the herd, and a coward. It's all the same to me as long as I'm fed and warm."
She, in turn, sent me to an essay by Aleksander Solzhenitsyn (whom I am slightly more familiar with, although again I apparently should be more so). Solzhenitsyn, as you may recall, is the author of The Gulag Archipelago and One Day In the Life of Ivan Denisovich, a critic of the Soviet Union, sent to the gulag (1945-1953), and eventual luminary on freedom and critic of the West's failures on fredom (and perhaps, also, a prophet on what would happen after the West failed).
On February 12, 1974 (The day he was arrested and eventually sent to what was then West Germany), an essay was published by him called "Live Not By Lies" (quoted by Claire Wolfe). The essay is a quiet but strong stance about the role of the individual in a culture that is doing everything in its power to squash freedom of thought and speech and demand conformity - something, I think which many of us are familiar with. It matches in tone some of the writings of Vaclav Havel, the Czech dissident playwright who was also jailed for his beliefs and writings.
The following quotes portions, quite simply, burned a hole in my soul.
"When violence intrudes into peaceful life, its face glows with self-confidence, as if it were carrying a banner and shouting: “I am violence. Run away, make way for me—I will crush you.” But violence quickly grows old. And it has lost confidence in itself, and in order to maintain a respectable face it summons falsehood as its ally—since violence lays its ponderous paw not every day and not on every shoulder. It demands from us only obedience to lies and daily participation in lies—all loyalty lies in that.
And the simplest and most accessible key to our self-neglected liberation lies right here: Personal non-participation in lies. Though lies conceal everything, though lies embrace everything, but not with any help from me.
This opens a breach in the imaginary encirclement caused by our inaction. It is the easiest thing to do for us, but the most devastating for the lies. Because when people renounce lies it simply cuts short their existence. Like an infection, they can exist only in a living organism.
We do not exhort ourselves. We have not sufficiently matured to march into the squares and shout the truth our loud or to express aloud what we think. It's not necessary.
It's dangerous. But let us refuse to say that which we do not think.
This is our path, the easiest and most accessible one, which takes into account out inherent cowardice, already well rooted. And it is much easier—it's dangerous even to say this—than the sort of civil disobedience which Gandhi advocated.
Our path is to talk away from the gangrenous boundary. If we did not paste together the dead bones and scales of ideology, if we did not sew together the rotting rags, we would be astonished how quickly the lies would be rendered helpless and subside.
That which should be naked would then really appear naked before the whole world."
There is a problem, says Solzhenitsyn, a problem which is originally caused by violence but propagated by lies. It is the sort of thing that civil disobedience will not solve. But there is an easier, but more challenging path:
"So in our timidity, let each of us make a choice: Whether consciously, to remain a servant of falsehood—of course, it is not out of inclination, but to feed one's family, that one raises his children in the spirit of lies—or to shrug off the lies and become an honest man worthy of respect both by one's children and contemporaries.
And from that day onward he:
- Will not henceforth write, sign, or print in any way a single phrase which in his opinion distorts the truth.
- Will utter such a phrase neither in private conversation not
in the presence of many people, neither on his own behalf not at the
prompting of someone else, either in the role of agitator, teacher,
educator, not in a theatrical role.
- Will not depict, foster or broadcast a single idea which he
can only see is false or a distortion of the truth whether it be in
painting, sculpture, photography, technical science, or music.
- Will not cite out of context, either orally or written, a
single quotation so as to please someone, to feather his own nest,
to achieve success in his work, if he does not share completely the
idea which is quoted, or if it does not accurately reflect the
matter at issue.
- Will not allow himself to be compelled to attend
demonstrations or meetings if they are contrary to his desire or
will, will neither take into hand not raise into the air a poster or
slogan which he does not completely accept.
- Will not raise his hand to vote for a proposal with which he
does not sincerely sympathize, will vote neither openly nor secretly
for a person whom he considers unworthy or of doubtful abilities.
- Will not allow himself to be dragged to a meeting where there
can be expected a forced or distorted discussion of a question. Will
immediately talk out of a meeting, session, lecture, performance or
film showing if he hears a speaker tell lies, or purvey ideological
nonsense or shameless propaganda.
- Will not subscribe to or buy a newspaper or magazine in which
information is distorted and primary facts are concealed. Of course
we have not listed all of the possible and necessary deviations from
falsehood. But a person who purifies himself will easily distinguish
other instances with his purified outlook."
Solzhenitsyn captures the spirit of Havel's Essays collected in his book "Living in Truth: The power that we all have as individuals, even in a world which does not allow for civil disobedience or even thinking differently, is to simply live in truth. To propagate only truth. To walk away - literally or figuratively - from anything and anyone which is not itself of the truth.
This is a thing you and I can do. Think the truth. Speak the truth. Speak for the truth - or if unable to do so, at least not to propagate a lie.
"No, it
will not be the same for everybody at first. Some, at first, will
lose their jobs. For young people who want to live with truth, this
will, in the beginning, complicate their young lives very much,
because the required recitations are stuffed with lies, and it is
necessary to make a choice.
But there are no loopholes for anybody who wants to be honest. On any given day any one of us will be confronted with at least one of the above-mentioned choices even in the most secure of the technical sciences. Either truth or falsehood: Toward spiritual independence or toward spiritual servitude.
And he who is not sufficiently courageous even to defend his soul—don't let him be proud of his “progressive” views, don't let him boast that he is an academician or a people's artist, a merited figure, or a general—let him say to himself: I am in the herd, and a coward. It's all the same to me as long as I'm fed and warm."
The whole essay is here. It is rather worth the 10-15 minutes it will take to read it.
Speak - Live - Be - the truth. We cannot perhaps totally stop lies, but we can at least not perpetuate them.
"And if
we get cold feet, even taking this step, then we are worthless and
hopeless, and the scorn of Pushkin should be directed to us:
Why should cattle have the gifts of freedom?
Their heritage from generation to generation is the belled yoke and the lash."
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