Saturday, July 18, 2020

The Plague of 2020: Economic Impacts III (Winners)

In every economic downturn, there are always winners.  Even in the worst of the worst, some things still do better - or merely "less badly"  than others.

1)  Grocery Stores: Up to the point that a supply chain completely collapses, grocery stores and grocery store like stores (the Big Box Supply Stores) are critical as almost no-one can supply their own food anymore.  Even when almost everything else was shut down, grocery stores stayed open.  These stores and the chains that support them - trucking, warehouses - will continue to work as long as there is food to supply and fuel to move the goods.

2)  Food Suppliers:  This takes any number of different forms, be they chicken processors or farms or bakeries.  But just like with grocery stores, they have a desired good and as long as there is a market and fuel to get it there, they will be a demand.

3)  Used Cars Sales:  Not really a company but a portion of an industry, the spreading of any number of plagues via close quarters make public transit a less desirable option.  Add to this the fact that for many, new cars have rapidly been priced out of the market, and suddenly used cars become an item of interest and value - perhaps not at the market price they once commanded, but surely more than new automobiles.

4)  Streaming Entertainment:  As many were/are trapped in their homes, they did the 20th and 21st Century quick reaction:  They reached for their remote controls and turned on their devices to watch shows.  Suddenly, the great transfer from movies theaters to streaming seems like a reality.  This works, of course - as long as the streaming services continue to have new content to offer (like many other industries, much of the movie and television industry is localized in certain areas and shut down as well).   This will work until, like the sports stations currently, all there is to watch is the equivalent of championships that occurred 7 years ago.  Right up to that point (or a complete loss of power), people will turn to their streaming devices much as Americans once turned to the movie theaters, to forget their troubles for a while.

5) Hardware and Home Improvement Stores:  People now have lots of time at home and an inability to go places (or lack the income to do so).  Improving where you live at at time like this is one of the activities that can be done with only the cost of the materials (and your labor).  We have certainly done so here, painting several rooms.

6)  Independent Living Companies:  This is a category (invented by me) to cover things as varied as seed companies, rural living companies (like Lehman's), and any sort of company that provides products or services that help one live in some way by becoming less dependent on the grid. As the economy continues to do poorly (and in my opinion, this will take years to dig out from), more and more people will - by necessity if not choice - have to start learning to do such things for themselves.


2 comments:

  1. I am seeing other winners and losers too. Moms are discovering that being home with the kids is pretty neat. Parents are noticing the deplorable state of their children’s education, and moving en masse to address it. Record numbers are choosing to homeschool in many places. Many of us are rediscovering the value of a dollar, the proper use of debt, budgets and prioritizing.

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    Replies
    1. Glen, you are right. There are lots of other winners - and winners in all of the small or single businesses that will arise to fill in the cracks that are being abandoned.

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