The Plague of 2020: Economic Impacts II (Sports)

More prophetical prognostication (Is that a phrase?  It should be, and I hereby claim it) of The Plague of 2020 on Sports:

Sports, at least on the professional scale, is an ingrained, assumed part of our culture.  Its tendrils go into so much:  live events, radio, television, the InterWeb, retail (both brick and mortar and InterWeb).  It is ubiquitous in our conversations and in our lives.

As a large public event, of course, sports is doomed as long as The Plague is here.  Perhaps one can go with a social distancing aspect of the game or - as has been proposed - without any fans at all (based on the social distancing requirements, it would be something like every other row and every other seat, not ideal from a financial point of view.  Plus, of course, longer lines and wearing a mask outdoors for 3-5 hours at a time.  Hardly enticing).  And that is the Tier 1 Professional sports - Tier 2, amateur leagues and minor leagues, would be in even worse shape. 

Who is impacted?  The players, not so much (at least immediately).  But everyone associated with the players:  coaches, trainers, sports doctors, those people that carry the water bottles around on the sidelines.  Anyone involved with the media sporting aspect - writers, producers, announcers, camera and sound folk, commentators - after all, how long can you discuss sports that happened two years ago?  And for the venues themselves, those that man the parking lots, food stands, stairways as ushers, groundskeepers, janitorial staff, those nice people in the jackets that I can never figure out precisely what they do but are obviously employed by the venue - again, all impacted by no sports occurring.

College programs are impacted as well, both directly by the Plague itself (colleges are already calling their fall seasons or greatly reducing them) and by the longer term impacts:  if this goes on long enough, there will be no drafts, or they will decrease in their importance.  Without a professional league, where will these players go (I sincerely hope that they have been diligently studying as well)?  And lest you think this is merely a sports problem, popular college sports can fund entire departments at a college for a year.  What happens when that money disappears?

Yet another impacted group is the local tax payers, who have (in many places) funded these very large sports venues with tax dollars.  If these were bonds, the tax payers will continue to pay for years on a depreciating asset in a time of decreased income and inflation.  If loans, the tax payers will continue to pay interest to a lender for an asset that they will not use or benefit from (unless they refuse to pay - which then impacts the lender...).

Another impacted area is that of all other sports not at the professional or college level. I cannot read this as well as I am not sure how it is being implemented.  In a true "social distancing" situation, any sport that involves any sort of physical contact would be discontinued.  This includes, in no particular order, football, baseball, basketball, soccer.  Other sports - volleyball, track and field - would not be as impacted but would require some additional safeguards (for example, having fixed locations in volleyball or running races being "timed" victories by sending the runners out in individual packets or all other track and field athletes moving through a line and then retreating to their socially distanced waiting areas).  Golf might fall into this as well, with single players out on the links, one per hole (groups, of course, only with socially distancing and masks - and how fun is 4-5 hours in the sun in masks going to be?).

So much of sports relies on close contact, something which is intrinsic to the nature of competition and risky in the nature of the Plague.

Taken to its logical extreme, lock downs, social distancing, and personal protection requirements will to some extent - partially or completely - enervate almost all sports to the point that at best they become much smaller in number and operation (to remain economically viable) or effectively disappear completely.

There is another mitigating factor, something which sports has not fully accounted for either:  we have been (at least in the US) without professional sports for some 4 months now.  And for the most part, we have managed to survive and find other things to fill our time.  I wonder if, having broken the habit, many are going to be willing to reinvest their time and energy in something that that they have replaced or - given the cost of packages to watch and listen to such events - will be able to afford it.