My big worry about The Plague is not the death toll. My worry is the economic aftermath.
Yes yes, I know. The primary concern is keeping people alive. And I get that. But there seems to be (overall) a singular lack of interest by the public at large about what happens after.
As of 09 April, 17 million individuals were unemployed - and that number has gone up since then. Businesses - larger and larger ones - are furloughing employees. More and more of them. And simply put, there is no real plan to get things going again.
This is what worries me. Because the unspoken assumption seems to be that the economy will just flip back on like a light switch.
It does not work like that, of course.
At best, it will take months, as individuals start to rebuild their savings and their lives. For many, there will be no immediate rebuilding as their jobs will have disappeared. And as so many of those that are currently unemployed or furloughed are considered "non-essential" (thanks, local governments for deciding how important people's jobs are) companies are going to look long and hard about bringing people back on.
Supply chains are slowly dying out and will take time and effort to rebuild (if they can be rebuilt - if anyone has not noticed, Amazon is dominating even more the entire market. Supply chains are shifting towards those that are still doing business). And even if industries get restarted, it will take time to get pieces and parts flowing to the places they are used.
The people that are screaming loudest about the continuing shutdown - for some indeterminate period that they cannot define other than "until it is safe" - will be the same individuals who, after the country "re-opens", will be screaming that economy is not coming on line fast enough for them. That their situations are not improving enough. That the goods and services they want are not available, or are too expensive. Of how they cannot find jobs in their former industry, or perhaps a job at all.
Will we make it? Probably. There is a surprising amount of initiative when you have to do something. But it will be a great deal longer, harder, and more painful than any of them can imagine right now.
Stopping an economy is incredibly easy. Restarting an economy is incredibly difficult.
This could also bring back good things, TB. At the risk of devolving into politics - regardless of what ours are - I think we can agree that we have a lot of ridiculous people in positions of power, making ridiculous decisions - and everyone goes along because the consequences can be pawned off on someone else, or kids that don't have a vote, and will be expected to pay the bills that aren't theirs. If the jig is up on that - and it will be, in a depression economy... people will take their votes seriously, and their tax dollars as well. They'll know that making a poor choice will be bad for everyone, including themselves. Accountability and responsibility are going to be virtues again. Those that have a problem with that will be corrected.
ReplyDeleteI am prone to misgivings too. There's that old nickel out there about how people will only do the right thing when there are no other options available.
Glen, that is a good point. There will be no more "kicking the can down the road". The road just ended in a cliff. And for those that pay taxes - and let us assume for the moment that taxes are going up - there will be a greater demand for accountability, of why certain money is being spent in certain places. All the way around.
DeleteOne wonders about the younger generation as well, as they will be stuck with the bill for all this - and depending whom they support, a larger or smaller bill. There is nothing like responsibility to make you begin to pay attention to the world.
Agreed. And while I mostly blame the demonrat socialists, the republican conservatives bear some of the blame also.
ReplyDeleteEveryone needs to go back to life as usual and not worry about this any more than they would have any other flu.
God bless.
They all do Linda. The real gap that has been revealed is a shocking lack of economic understanding. Perhaps the Dismal Science will once again take its place as an important subject.
DeleteNot to mention the fact that that certain "leaders" are trying to stretch this crisis out as long as possible, ideally until November.
ReplyDeleteHell; the "leader" out here wants to take taxpayer money and hand $500.00 to ILLEGAL ALIENS!
I went to my barber this morning and lo and behold, he was OPEN. As he cut my hair and we kicked tires, swatted flies, and discussed the state of the union, I asked the barber how he was open and no one else was. He said "Because, dammit, I DECIDED to open!" I guess he decided that whatever fine he might have to pay would be less than what he was losing being closed. I think this is how it's going to go; people realizing how this is being played, saying "Enough is enough," and forcing the issue.
...We can only hope...
I saw that Pete. I believe they ended up getting money from private sources (which is fine). The reality for all those folks is that the longer this goes on, the less likely that will continue.
DeleteAll hail your barber.
I think you are right. People are rapidly going to feel the need to open - I think this is driven by those that are not "essential" and who look at the $1200 check and are not independently wealthy and want (and need) to get to work.
We are fortunate as I am considered "essential" (if you can believe it) and The Ravishing Mrs. TB can work from home. And both of us have not yet suffered a loss in income. It would be incredibly tough for those that have neither of these things.
The tone deaf nature of the government in these matters is astounding.
The whole thing was badly handled. It was a media-driven narrative from the beginning, trying to push fear and panic buttons, which it did. The Trumpophobes gleefully jumped on board. I feel very fortunate to not have suffered, but my heart breaks for everyone who lost jobs and businesses, and will be left to struggle to get their lives back together. I can't help but wonder what will happen next time.
ReplyDeleteLeigh, if we get out of this, I do not know there will be a next time. Anyone that has lived through this has learned their lesson well.
DeleteI do wonder - long term - what the impact will be on the concept of small business. I wonder if the solo or duo operation will more likely become the norm both to reduce overhead and improve the ability to "operate" under the radar.