One of my daily InterWeb stops is Dailyjobcuts.com. I do not really have a precise idea who runs the site and could not tell you how long I have been stopping by there (it has been some years), but as economic news remains salient to my life, I regularly check in.
From the general format of the site, it is likely that whomever operates the site tends more to the reddish/conservative side. That is okay, if that is not someone's cup of tea: the news is confined to the header portion; the actual information I am interested in is below.
There are three columns: Layoffs, Whose Hiring, and Closing. For each of these columns, the site is regularly updated directly to the the press releases announcing the news.
One of the things that the study of history can teach one is to look for trends. Effects are created by causes, which are themselves then in turn the catalyst for a new cycle of causes. As one wave crests and retreats, another comes after it. But it is only looking at things day after day that one can begin to see the patterns beginning to emerge.
I am not an economist and would not begin to suggest that I have any insight into the finer details of economic patterns. However, it is interesting to watch as some sense of mega-trends occur.
I think most people are familiar now with the layoffs that have occurred in high technology - many that are very big business names, but many also that are smaller (that I would never have heard of prior to this site). As those have moved on, a logical question is where is the impact to be felt. It then seems to emerge in the companies that support those sorts of businesses. Then, as those businesses are affected, the businesses that depend on people being employed and having disposable begin laying off. Then the companies that supply those business have layoffs. As they are users of technology (who is not these days) and secondary services (the first two tranches), their decrease in employment then moves back up to the top of the chain.
And so it goes.
Homes are another prime example of this trend. Mortgage rates are up; banks are beginning to layoff mortgage employees. With less homes being bought and sold, realtors and builders will be affected. That will work its way down to title firms and other secondary support firms. The restaurants they went to, the services they employed, will feel the pinch.
The hiring column also has entries, but they are a fraction of the other two columns, and the numbers that are being hired are in the hundreds, even as potentially thousands are being laid off.
It is fair to say that our economy has always had its share of "creative destruction", and that new things come out of failed enterprises. At the same time, it has been at least 14 years since we have seen anything like to sort of economic malaise we are currently facing; a whole generation has entered the work force and, like investors or real estate agents in a long running bull market, assume things will only and ever get better and go up.
When cracks appear, they usually start in the places we are not looking. Look in those places, and perhaps the future, while not being clearly seen, can at least be anticipated.










