Friday, September 03, 2021

Of Notifications And More Cases

 Now that Nighean Dhonn  has restarted high school, we are getting the now-familiar round of e-mails:  campus updates, newsletters, "opportunities for students" - all the things that fill my mailbox and I have to remind myself at graduation to unsubscribe from.

We are also almost daily getting notifications of The Plague.

This should probably not come as a surprise; after all:  packing in hundreds of children and young adults into an enclosed space with  not a lot of social distancing and The Plague still being active will lead to this sort of thing.  And in a perhaps not-unrelated note, notifications of confirmed cases from my employer have also been on the rise - driven, no doubt in some part, by the aforementioned returning school children.

From what we are continuing to find out, the vaccines issued under Emergency Use Authorization are not nearly as bullet proof as they were originally advertised:  at best now, they seem to modulate the severity of The Plague, not prevent it entirely.  It is as if we were hoping for a titanium answer and got a copper one instead:  still metal, but much more malleable and much less enduring.

Which makes me posit a question:  are we just all going to get it anyway?

I know this is heresy in certain circles, the suggestion that sooner or later we will all end up with a virus that we are supposedly in the process of defeating.  But reality seems to be that we are not nearly as far along as we thought we were.

(And yes, to be fair, there are still those nagging questions about the reproductive studies and long term safety studies the companies are going to get to here "any day now".  By count, in the recent Pfizer extension letter, they had committed to another ten.  And that was still without full approval.  Moderna and JNJ are not scheduled to complete their trials until Summer 2023.)

I know there are varying opinions of The Plague, even here; as is also widely known, at least here, I have lost two aunts to it as well as had a number of cousins come down with it.  It is not - from everything they have conveyed and the literature suggest - just the Flu.  And I would be the first in line to state that the initial "two weeks to flatten" was the most damaging thing I can think has been done to an economy since maybe 2008 and the "Shovel Ready" support package, if not the Stagflation of the Carter administration.  So anything like that is a non-starter (and, it seems, even government authorities, who are often in love with their grandiose "emergency powers", seem to not be suggesting that again).

But at what point does the plan change from "complete destruction" which seems impossible to "mitigation"?  There is some data that suggests that natural antibodies are far superior and longer lasting than chose generated by the vaccines (which again, should not surprise anyone); some enterprising young graduate student might make their name by performing a study tracking those with acquired immunity versus those with vaccinated immunity over the next five years and see what shakes out.

Is the strategy just to continue to let The Plague mutate until it becomes attenuated?  If that is the strategy, it seems a rather poor one:  I would imagine it could just as easily become stronger instead of weaker.

Am I calling for the equivalent of Chicken Pox Parties?  Hardly.  Any disease affects the individual quite differently and what I may shrug off, you may die from.  But we still seem to be stuck in this paradigm that we can completely prevent some portion of the population from ever getting The Plague.  My question is, knowing what we know now, is that still an actual or potential possibility or do we simply begin managing towards a different goal?

31 comments:

  1. Natural selection favors diseases that debilitate rather than rapidly kill their hosts. Dead people rarely walk around, exhale or copulate while debilitated, chronic carriers do.

    The only scenario where a disease with a higher/quicker fatality rate would be able to reproduce faster than the less virulent one with a longer period of infectivity would be if the corpse liquified or exploded.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ERJ - Indeed, from my very limited knowledge of hemorrhagic fevers, this is (frankly) the reason why they are not more fatal than they are; death occurs very quickly.

      It makes one wonder if somewhere there was a scenario played out on the original version of The Plague and if so, what that actually looked like - did it look like this?

      Delete
  2. Anonymous4:55 AM

    A general population infection - I wouldn't be a bit surprised if that occurred. Most of us will live through it so I'm not that worried. When your time is up - its up.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous - I am neither an epidemiologist nor a public health official nor a doctor, but that seems likely at this point. If that is the case, I wonder why we are not publicly discussing that as a scenario.

      Delete
    2. Because it doesn't make Big Pharma enough money, TB. Getting people to panic and line up for your product, which promises "immunization" makes a lot more coin than saying "this might make you fell better when you get The Plague..."

      Can you imagine if Uncle Sam did this with Boeing?

      Uncle Sam: Have you tested the new plane?

      Boeing: We've got the engines running, the flaps move up and down, and we've done a taxi roll with it."

      Uncle Sam: Good. Let 'er rip!"

      Come to think of it, maybe Uncle Sam DOES do this with Boeing...

      Delete
    3. Fair Pete. I do note that Pfizer is already at work on a pill version.

      The FDA does not always get it right either. They have withdrawn market approval of products in the past. In some ways, as unfortunate at the software issue with Boeing.

      Delete
  3. You forgot the part about where the vaccinated people are the ones causing the variants.

    And while this seems to be worse than the flu, which hasn't been seen since this started, we have never beaten the flu either.

    It's no reason to shut down an economy.

    It is what it is.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Linda, that is something that seems to be something unanticipated, that the vaccinated or even asymptomatic carriers are causing acting as virus sinks. It certainly seems to not work that way with the flu - but then again, there was probably a time when the flu came around and was equally as fatal as The Plague is now.

      Hopefully they do not shut down the economy again - good heavens, with the jobs report today, it may very well end it.

      Delete
  4. I think we must be reading from different sites. I have not heard one reputable scientist suggest that we can beat Covid-19 into submission like say polio. It is impossible to do so. All I read state that this will become like dozens of novel coronaviruses that we have floating around already. It will eventually/hopefully become less virulent and will just be another bad cold that we get once a year. So yes, you will get it eventually because the odds aren't in your favor. The problem is that if you emphasize this future, you do run the risk of Covid-19 parties and more people dying until it does become less virulent. Of course, there is always a chance that it goes the other way as well and becomes say 50% lethal instead of less than 2%. But that seems to rarely happen in nature.

    Our schools have been in person during the entire pandemic and from reviewing the results, I have learned a few things that allow me to sleep better at night. Kids don't pass Covid-19 readily among each other. The biggest reason is that they rarely have any symptoms that cause them to aerosolize it. Several studies have shown that the largest percentage of youth infections are caused by their home environment and not while as school. There has not been a single mass outbreak at any of our schools in town since this entire thing started. Our schools this year have stopped notifying parents of Covid positive students and per CDC guidelines, just send them home for quarantine and the rest of the students go on with their lives.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Ed, I would agree with you - and the scientists - that it most likely will become another cold or flu. But with continued talk of vaccine passports (a long term solution to a short term problem) and potential boosters (which there seems to be a growing disconnect between scientists and government), the government is not acting at all like they see that as the outcome. Perhaps before they rushing into a system of tracking which can only end up with the curtailing of civil liberties, they might just try holding off on that a bit.

      I did read this week they theorize children have certain cells in their nasal passages that help defeat the virus.

      We are still in the notification phase both at school and at work - if they keep up at this pace they either need to go back to remote learning or just give up on notifications.

      Delete
  5. It has been explained over and over that the "jab" lessens the hospital stays etc... but I have seen no indicator or evidence that this is so. Where is the data that illuminates this supposed connection between being inoculated and less sever symptoms? I believe this "fact" to be further subterfuge. Not casting shade on anyone, just looking for information.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Just So, here was one article I found (dated today) out of the UK: https://www.timespaper.us/health/covid-vaccines-cut-odds-of-hospitalization-by-two-thirds/. That said, there are also some recent studies that natural antibodies from infection are more durable than vaccinations.

      Delete
    2. Researchers analyzed "self reported data".

      This is an opinion poll, useful, yet not to be confused with science.

      Delete
    3. Just So, This is a study which, to be fair, was conducted by an Insurance Company but measures Average length of stay, time spent in the ICU, and reduction in mortality from India: https://www.businesstoday.in/personal-finance/did-you-know/story/heres-how-much-a-vaccine-can-reduce-your-covid-19-medical-bills-301214-2021-07-13

      Delete
  6. Yes, it affects everyone differently. 5 in my family managed to get through it with minimal intervention. One is on O2 after 2 months with reduced lung functions and a distant in-law just passed away on his 46th birthday.

    An overreacting immune system will attack everything like a shark with blood in the water. Even its own body. Usually hits the lungs and damages them. Same mechanism as the 1919 Spanish epidemic.

    There isn't a way to remove the risk of getting this, except by getting it and recovering or dying. The rapid tests couldn't discern a cold, flu or C19 so worthless... It takes years to develop a vaccine. This injection targets a single protein that has to have mutated in the last 18 months and so it can't be effective. And and and..... Pete nailed it, and add in the Emanuel quote of "let no crisis go to waste" and you can explain it all. Follow the money and the power grabs. QED

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Same here STxAR. Out of six family members that I know had it, four recovered, two passed away, and one who recovered (a cousin) has had rheumatoid arthritis triggered by it.

      The development time does not worry me so much, but the lack of long term safety data (related to development time) does. And yes, the government is going to use this as long as possible to grab as much power as possible.

      Delete
  7. Not taking the vaccine. Supposedly I had a positive test last August. No symptoms, but did a 14 day quarantine.

    I think the severity of the disease has more to do with underlying health conditions than anything else.

    My youngest brother, who died of it last August, was morbidly obese, 6'-4", 400 pounds and he had untreated AFib. Plus he had emphysema from 40+ yrs of cigarette and pot smoking. Also a little pneumonia that he wasn't able to get rid of from two years ago.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Mike - I am sorry for your loss. Comorbidities did pay a huge roll (the deaths in my family were both family members above 70 and one suffered from obesity as well), one that has not been as well parsed as it should been - in my opinion, because it would mean going back and rethinking how this disease was approached.

      I would be interested to take the test - if a bad reaction to the vaccine is a sign you may have had it, then I may two sets of antibodies floating around.

      Delete
  8. Chicken pox parties. When I was a kid, I remember hearing someone's mom saying, "Go play with so-n-so, they've got chicken pox at their house. Go catch it and get it over with."

    I think the thing that puzzles me, is the difference in attitude with this one. We've had all sorts of infectious diseases to deal with over recent years: seasonal flu, SARS, MERS, Ebola, HIV, all of which people seemed to take in stride and deal with with common sense. People were concerned about them, but not scared of them. Covid19 has elicited a different response - more fearful, panicky, even hysterical. I'm not saying that's right or wrong, I'm just saying this reaction seems odd compared to the past. What changed? These diseases were all unknowns at their origin, but the world has responded differently to this one.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Safety fascism is the big one Leigh. Helicopter parents, removing playground equipment? Firing squads and lawfare for students bringing peanut butter sammiches to school? Suspensions and expulsions for kids that pointed their finger like a gun and went, “Bang!”… in the workplace adults have to wear more PPE than a Marine in a combat zone. I personally see it as an opportunity for parched and desolate souls to find meaning and identity. As Covid warriors they pose as brave victims of a faceless terror, and as fearless heroes as they scold others to wear masks and follow orders that would be laughably ineffective were it a real pandemic. To them Covid is a religion and they will never give it up.

      Delete
    2. I did not catch chicken pox until the eighth grade as it made its way through my school. What a miserable experience.

      Leigh, I really do not have an insight into that. It certainly does seem to have been a significantly different reaction, although the transmissibility certain seems to be different than a great many other of the diseases you mention (except the flu and SARS that I recall). People are reacting very differently - if we had suggested people who engaged in actions that led to diseases be ostracized and made to pay higher premiums for any other disease, we would be castigated. Why is this the only one?

      Among several things that bother me about this, the continuing lack of interest in the origination of the disease is troubling. We tend to know or find out where most of these sorts of things originate from - why is there no interest except a vague "it might have come from here - or maybe not" report.

      Perhaps the reactions are being driven by the governments of the world, who themselves are acting differently about this (in their case, seemingly finding ways to extend authoritarianism.

      Delete
    3. It does seem like it's being handled differently by governments than diseases of the past, but then, nowadays, all things are highly politicized. Also, I'd have to add that the media hasn't helped, but then, it's always been the nature of the media to spin and sensationalize everything.

      I agree about the origins. And while it may or may not be "conspiracy theory" that it was developed as a biological agent, if it was, that might explain why the virus isn't behaving as we would hope in terms of vaccinations. It may have been engineered to behave that way. That will seem far-fetched to some, but we'll never know if dismiss it without taking an objective look into it. True science requires exploring all possibilities without bias.

      The other thing there's been no interest in, has been accurate data keeping. Deaths for example. Death from and death with shouldn't have been lumped together, but they were. Not at all scientific. Some states are trying to go back and straighten that out, but the fear damage has already been done. Consequently, I know people who are absolutely terrified of this disease.

      There's been an obsession with this particular disease that is certainly puzzling, and the power hungry have wasted no time taking advantage of it.

      Delete
    4. Glen - Viewing the list of things can be no longer done as child, I am surprised folks like you and I ever survived childhood...

      I do not think your assessment is necessarily off. It does give some people a sense of meaning and fulfillment to be "on the front lines" of fighting a world wide virus (which apparently means policing others). In a way, I wonder if it not an extension of the idea of the participation trophy: we all get credit for doing something?

      Delete
    5. Leigh - It seems like the conflagration of all of our bad tendencies, does it not: A media that sensationalizes (and has reason in its mind to choose sides), A bureaucracy that was shown to be woefully unprepared, a political system that was eager to take advantage, and (in our case) a state which was bitterly divided. In all cases, The Plague merely because the cause and weapon needed.

      It is interesting - our perception of "biologic agent" is viewed through lens of the highly deadly (smallpox, anthrax) or the very fanciful (Any of the "This is why zombies exist" sort of things). We do not have a place for something that is somewhat deadly but not 100% fatal. And what people think they see from the longer term effects of The Plague suggests it is just a little more than just a random virus (as related above, my cousin has developed rheumatoid arthritis - fairly severely - because of The Plague. That typical does not happen with the flu, that I am aware of). I do not wonder that the reason the investigation is so bland is that it might force admissions from a lot of people, states, and institutions about what has been going on with public funding.

      Unfortunately for accuracy and facts, a high level of fatalities serves the common narrative. It is always much easier after the fact to go back and post a retractions; the damage is already done. What people fail to grasp is that this undermines the trust of people in science, government, and media overall. Short term gain, long term loss.

      Delete
  9. Anonymous4:55 PM

    Aussie lurker here,
    As a science undergrad in the early 1990's Laurie Garrett's "The Coming Plague" was incredible reading. We were all still terrified of HIV, which Garrett described it as "the perfect virus". You were infected and practically asymptomatic for a decade to pass it around before it produced any symptoms.

    Garrett went into extreme detail about ebola, and how she & her team knowingly faced the risks with great personal bravery. She went into considerable biological detail about burial practices that seemed to guarantee widespread transmission. But it made sense. 99% fatality for the first patients and then the mortality rate plunged with each new cycle of transmission as the organism adapted to its new host.

    There was a couple of metric tonnes of excellent work on influenza and emerging morbilli viruses, and organisms that certain primates in the Amazon allegedly used to cause cancer in competing primate species.

    Looked her up a few weeks ago for her take on the coof. Utter shrieking harpy (in August 2021!) about Orange man bad, get the not-a-vax, and "Poor Gretchen" (I presume a certain governor?). Le Sigh. How the heroes of our youth fall over time. I can't help but wonder if all of her previous work was similarly slanted and I couldn't see it?

    Stay well, and thanks for letting me rant.


    KA

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. KA - Greetings and thanks for leaving a comment (first one from Australia, so a Martian No-Prize for you!).

      That someone who has demonstrated such dedication and scientific acumen has become essentially a cheerleader for any particular political and or social agenda is always depressing. To be honest, the science side of things is not the only one; this seems to happen to a lot of religious leaders too. It always makes at least question their other work - and what changed so significantly in their lives.

      The cycle as you describe it makes sense - after all and was said earlier, if viruses are too successful, they kill all their hosts and end up dying themselves.

      Please stay safe and sane as well. Australia is a lot on my mind, given recent events. Feel free to comment - or rant - as often as you like.

      Delete
  10. Anonymous2:52 AM

    Hi TB,
    Thank you for your kind words and invitation to continue to comment. I am sure I am not the first Aussie to comment - maybe the first Aussie to admit to being an Aussie? But thanks for the Martian no-prize. I haven't heard that one in years.

    I suspect the appearance of Aussies having just rolled over is because the majority of us are up to our eyeballs in debt. Our housing prices are insane and increasing almost logarithmically. As a whole, we tend to keep our mouth shut due to fear of becoming homeless. It's a truly horrible time to be looking for work and trying to pay a mortgage and raise a family.

    Kind regards,

    KA

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. KA - The fact you actually know what a Martian no-prize is fills my heart with unspeakable joy.

      I had not heard that specifically about the Australian housing market (although to be fair, I do not know that I followed it), but that sounds similar to what is going on here - my house has increased approximately 100% in value since we purchased it, and were we looking today, we could not afford it. I can only imagine that trying to keep things together is such a situation would be stressful in the extreme. Is the economy still troubled because of the Plague?

      Delete
  11. Anonymous2:53 PM

    Hi TB,
    I can only discuss my local town in NSW, which is a major regional centre, but we have been in a semi-serious lockdown for probably 8-10 weeks now. Other than being really inconvenient, we have been forced to work from home for so long that it actually feels nothing has changed.

    The building industry is absolutely booming, because of soaring house prices and extremely low interest rates on home loans. Old houses are being renovated and new houses are popping up all over the place. Perhaps this is a co-incidence? It's also worth noting the building industry is used as a key indicator of economic growth in this country.

    The economy doesn't appear to be troubled in any serious way, other than delays or shortages of some imported goods (typically from China).

    On a day-to-day level, we are now legally compelled to wear masks and sign in and out of every shop we go, and risk heavy fines for non-compliance. We are not allowed to travel more than a 5km radius (3 miles) from our home address without special permissions. We are also all acutely aware that every thing we do is being heavily monitored including allegedly anonymous comments online on blogs.

    As I write this in the first week of September 2021, the general mood is very optimistic and it appears that 99.9% of people are just going along to get along - the restrictions seem to be coming to an end soon. We get local versions of the same propaganda in the media you get - sick people in hospital saying "if only", and now the hotspot in western shitney is allegedly getting overwhelmed with cases of worm medication overdoses etc, etc. Rose fertiliser !

    In private, many people are supremely sceptical of receiving a particular medical treatment. However, resistance vapourises the moment this particular treatment becomes mandatory for their workplace. It appears most are so indebted with their home loan and very few have sufficient savings to be able to refuse. I am old enough to remember my family paying 18% interest on our home loan. When rates rise again, I pray that I am wrong, but I think we are going to be in for a particularly rough time here.



    Kind regards,

    KA

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. KA - Your experience sounds very similar to lots of place around here: building as quickly as they can acquire land due to the historically low interest rates (I, too, remember the times of 18% interest rates by association only).

      Mask wearing in our area of operations (AO) is largely voluntary except at places that require it. No requirements to log in anywhere and we are not limited in our travel (I write this to you 8 hours out from where I usually live). That said, I think a great many people are still not going out as much as they used to as they got into the habit of staying in - certainly I now hit a minimum of places, far less than I used to .

      Like you, we have the same sorts of stories. However, we also have the stories of the CDC (Centers for Disease Control) walking back their numbers in terms of total deaths; it becomes harder and harder to know where "truth" lies.

      Some companies are requiring vaccinations, but from what I have read, the Federal Government is not freeing companies from liability if the vaccination causes other health issues (e.g., they can be sued). These have not been put to a court case yet, but I would imagine the first time it happens and a company loses, it will put an end to that. No company will be willing to risk that kind of liability and bad press.

      I think your economic hard times will be our economic hard times; at least thanks to the Interweb, we can at least share them together instead of alone.

      Your Obedient Servant, Toirdhealbheach Beucail

      Delete
  12. Anonymous2:33 AM

    Hi TB,
    I take EVERYTHING I said about the situation down here in Australia being "mostly OK" back. I've accidentally misled you.

    I just watched a video called "Connecting the dots: Australia" by Dave Cullen on BitChute. I just learned more about what is going on in my own country from some internet rando from freaking IRELAND than I thought possible.

    I would have laughed at what he claimed - right up until he played the video footage of interviews with NSW's Chief Health officer (Kerry Chant) - I hadn't seen that stuff before. No wonder all the US and Canadian bloggers are in uproar about what is going on down here. You know more about what is happening than we do.

    I'm a normal bloke, work hard, pay my taxes and try my best to live a life worthy of the gifts my maker blessed me with. I keep my head down and my opinions to myself. I try to be a grey man and really pick my battles. But at this moment, my face is burning with anger. I'd go to the gym and lift, but the gyms are all closed.

    At work today, we all received an allegedly "anonymous survey" from our employer asking about our status, our intention, and which division we work in. So mgt is brazenly assessing how bad the fall out is going to be when they do the obvious. So we probably have a week or perhaps two before they announce mandatory compliance.

    I was genuinely NOT AWARE it was THIS BAD - and either were my mates. I'm spreading this video far-and-wide.



    Cheers,

    KA

    ReplyDelete

Your comment will be posted after review. If you could take the time to be kind and not practice profanity, it would be appreciated. Thanks for posting!