The Collapse LIII: Economics Of A Collapse

December 11 20XX

My Dear Lucilius:

It is odd – for many years I told others that if I was given my choice of careers that I would truly love to do, my choice would be to live somewhere isolated, have a very simple lifestyle, and think great thoughts. I now find that in fact I have that simple lifestyle in an isolated locale; whether the thoughts are great or not remains for others to judge.

It strikes me that in all of my thinking and preparing and (may we use the term) plotting, I do not know that I quite imagined the collapse of a society to occur in this particular fashion. History perhaps rhymed in this case, as the saying goes, but only the sort of rhyme that one has to explain to everyone so that they might understand where it happened – which is the least effective sort of rhyme, much as the joke one constantly must explain to demonstrate the humor.

I can see some author preparing to write his overview based on the theory: a long economic decline, a collapsing currency, then suddenly collapsing supply lines, a collapsed currency, and a collapsed economy which causes a collapsed society. He would probably sit there, look at his output, then tears it up and start over with either the Undead, a Plague, or Aliens.

There is something quite pedestrian – if one can use the term to describe the suffering, death, and disaster that is going on out there beyond my sight – about a simple economic collapse. There are no great battles. There are no heroes. There are, perhaps, speeches given that perhaps are worthy of recollection, but they are the speeches of experts with figures and graphs, not the sort of thing to fire men’s blood to action.

And to use the analogy, the frog in the pot boils very slowly indeed. Most may notice that somehow the prices on everything they buy are increasing and quantity and quality may be decreasing but it is never quite enough for anyone to truly complain about or take action on. Salaries are being consumed more and more by fewer and fewer items – a place to live, utilities, transportation, food – but the people and the government themselves never ask after why this is, only make a few noises perhaps about the greed of a few and pass a few laws to make everyone feel that they have done something.

I lived through this economic situation as did you, Lucilius. We both saw and endured the same things. Perhaps the more meaningful question is “Could something different have been done?”

I have given this a great deal of thought. I think the answer is no.

Think of what the alternative would have been. To re-establish the economic foundations, it would have required a multi-prong approach. Government spending at all levels would have had to be cut, taxes would have had to be increased – in both cases to significantly decrease the national debt. Local economies - “making things, growing things, harvesting things (mining, forestry and so on)”

would have had to be encouraged. Those intangible economics – services, technology – would have had to be encouraged as internal developments, not things to be spun out to the world to return here in their finished, most expensive form. We would have had to be willing to pay higher prices for both goods and services that employed our fellow citizens as well as ensured that at some level, the world came to us instead of us going to the world. We would have had to celebrate attitudes and characteristics that have been long set aside: frugality, hard work, success, the concept that those that worked hard should be able to keep the bulk of their success instead of having to surrender it to the government for its own desires. Government would need to be seen for the net consumer of resources it is instead of a net generator of revenue. 

 And finally, our currency would have had to become “worth” something again, however that might be established – by making “full faith and credit” mean something again by building a surplus not a deficit, or by simply tying the currency to some sort of actual value instead of a theoretical construct of value, or some third means of making it valuable that only economists truly understand but which demonstrates the fact that currency means value, not promises.

You and I know the outcome to this, of course. There was no will to do any of these things, just the will to continue to push the problem down the road: accept increased prices, increased spending, increased taxes, increased borrowing, decreased wages – until all of a sudden like a major infection of the human body, the system was just overwhelmed all at once.

To be completely honest with you, I think I would have preferred the Aliens more.

Your Obedient Servant, Seneca