Monday, August 28, 2023

On New Budgets And Economic Paranoia

 We have now completed two full paycheck cycles with my new income and the final budget numbers are more or less in.  The Ravishing Mrs. TB and I re-reviewed categories this morning and still have some homework to do based on expenses.

To be completely honest, I cannot tell you how strangely paranoid and worried I have become about income in the last month.

For clarity, the change in my income, while reasonably significant, is still well above the "we need to eat Ramen every night for a year" scenario.  All the bills are paid.  Savings are being put aside. The pets are still being maintained in the manner to which they have become accustomed (more or less; they claim less).  The one thing that really got pushed to the side is make-up retirement savings, but that is simply due to the fact that we essentially self funded my unemployment (which we were fortunate to be able to do, but now we have catch up on savings to replenish that fund).

And yet with all of this, I still find myself looking over my economic shoulder.

Part of it is understandable, I suppose.  The layoff (Hammerfall 2.0) is still too fresh in my mind and the gap - even though it was only 5 weeks - still stings.  And I find myself looking over my shoulder at my current job as well, which to be fair is a start-up with all the promise and risk that a start-up entails. I sometimes wonder if I am inflating potential risk factors in my head when I hear of certain developments or certain conversations - am I becoming one to jump at every sound and slash of light?  Because that seems like a pretty unfortunate way to go through life.

I am fortunate - I think I am fortunate - that I actually had the foresight to acquire a part-time job (Produce (A)Isle).  Yes, I have already cut my hours somewhat (as being gone six nights a week between work and Iaijutsu proved too much ever for me), but the additional coin in my pocket and the fact we can get a discount on a whole lot of groceries still makes me feel ahead of the game - and the knowledge that once I have the job, I am already one step ahead of looking for a job that will do the same thing (also, of course, I can ask to ramp my hours up again if needed).

I think what is weighing on my mind is simply the feeling that the economic world around me is not getting better either.

I know, I know.  Long ago someone told me that all economics, like all real estate markets, are local:  if you are doing well the economy is fine, if you are not the economy is terrible (in either case, regardless of what the numbers are).  And depending on which side of the political spectrum one finds one's self on, one can always find evidence to support one side or the other.

And yet, I hold a sense that there is simply something not right with the economic world, something that is just beyond my vision.

I am old enough and experienced enough not to just set aside my feelings based on the fact that I get "feelings"  - I have learned to my peril that ignoring such things almost never works out well for me.  And we can certainly do what we can to ensure that we work to minimize our spending and maximize our ability to save and make do with what we have.

I would not say it is so much a sense of fear as it is a sense of uneasiness, of waiting for a second shoe to drop which I can sense in the darkness even though I cannot see the form of the shoe dropping itself.  

The thump is coming.  No matter how much I steel myself, I still know I will start.

16 comments:

  1. Nylon125:41 AM

    Perhaps jumping at every sound and slash of light is the result of being close to Hammerfall2.0 timewise. Substitute "gut" for "feelings" and there ya go TB. A sizable number of friends/neighbors are experiencing that unease.

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    1. I think so, Nylon12. Perhaps the fact that things in general seem to be getting worse, not better, is coloring my impression - I see absolutely no leadership on any meaningful local, state, or federal level that convinces me that we as a society and country are ready to handle this sort of economic challenges. That is disheartening.

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  2. I think the biggest reason for our financial success is always preparing for the worst as if it were happening next week. It has certainly seen us through some tough times when they were actually present. So I don’t think that feeling the worst is near is a bad thing.

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    1. It is not a bad thing Ed -as you point out, sometimes it can be a real thing. I am just not used to this level of anxiety about it, but perhaps that is simply that I allowed myself to get too comfortable.

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  3. Until you have restored your emergency funds (I don't call it retirement as you and I will NEVER see retirement) to a level you feel comfortable PAY ATTENTION to your gut.

    Don't analyze yourself into "it's all good" like so many others.

    Proverbs 27 doesn't say "talks himself out of unrealistic fears..."

    …11Be wise, my son, and bring joy to my heart, so that I can answer him who taunts me. 12The prudent see danger and take cover; but the simple keep going and pay the penalty.

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    1. Michael, legitimate point about retirement - likely there will be some kind of job long beyond the "typical" retirement age; hopefully it will at least be something more of my choosing.

      The savings dearth is a concern, especially with some expensive home repairs in the offing.

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  4. Anonymous11:20 AM

    Oddly I just read "Boiling Frogs" over at Eton Joe's this morning.

    Seems apt given the subject.

    Michael

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  5. TB, if you WEREN'T concerned about "economic issues" right now it'd be a fairly good assumption that you didn't have a PULSE!

    Let the Holy Sprit guide you on this stuff, as you're SURELY not going to get a a straight answer from "the political spectrum." Believe what's right in front of you! How much money is coming in? How much is going out. WHY is so much going out? Believe me; this economy is NOT "local," and you'll not be permitted to see that thing that's "just beyond (your) vision..." That, TB, is a FEATURE; not a bug...

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    1. Fair, Pete - Although as Uisdean Ruadh would tell you, I have been seeing the collapse of civilization since 1983, so I am often accused of being "reactionary".

      I have no hope from anyone on the political spectrum, as everyone seems to be interested only in managing the information for their own gain. My eyes and my brain tell me something different, something much more ominous is happening.

      We need to re-review the budget, probably even more carefully than I have done - sort of to your point, worst case scenario things and go from there.

      I am praying and will continue to do so.

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  6. Good stuff, TB, and I agree with Peteforester -- believe what's right in front of you. That said, I certainly understand your concern given events of the past. I am close to retirement, but I still worry about the "hammer falling." About to go on vacation for two weeks, and I worry they'll figure out they can do it without me. In reality, (A) I'm 99 percent sure that's not going to happen and (B) even if it did, we would be fine. But when you've worked as long as I have, and always for someone else, those worries and concerns are just part of this kind of life. I know God is good. All the time. That supersedes all.

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    1. Thanks Bob. Pete is a gold mine of good advice.

      I think - legitimately - a great deal many more people should be worried than are. It almost feel like every day now someone is laid off and it is a surprise.

      God is indeed good, and no matter what has happened, we have not not starved or been without housing.

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  7. How about this, since all those almost 0% interest loans after 2009 (and quantitative easings) for prime borrowers till the recent push to raise interest rates, are now being renegotiated at much higher rates. those companies and governments are now upside down. Bank, business and .Gov bankruptcies are coming soon. Actually, they are already happening, but we aren't going to say so out loud. It's appropriate to be worried.

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    1. TM - Someone not all that long ago finally explained government bonds and interest rates in a way that I could understand. And then I got rather concerned after I understood it. The national debt will overtake us all that much more quickly, and what will happen after that? Raise taxes? Watch businesses and individuals go under.

      I am at least happy I got to live through some of the better days of the US and that my children had a relatively stable and prosperous childhood and are relatively well prepared for the world that is coming.

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  8. Anonymous5:55 AM

    Part of living within your means is finding ways to cut costs and keeping them in an account meant only for emergencies. If you have a car payment that is payed off, keep paying into that account so your discretionary spending is maintained at same level. A year or two of that nets you a nifty nest egg.

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    1. That is what we try to do, although we have different ways to do it. The Ravishing Mrs. TB can keep track of it in her head. I like cash in an envelope.

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