During the initial outbreak of The Plague in 2020, one of the things that was impacted was travel - more specifically, my travel as a family vacation to a foreign country where Nighean Gheal was then going to school was canceled because, well, the country shut down (which made getting there a bit difficult). The credit was issued of course, and so for the past two years it has sat there, slowly getting extended expiration dates.
This past June, The Ravishing Mrs. TB sent a note along: would I consider not in Country X, but in Country Y? Sure, I said. After all, Country Y had just as much historical interest and as many historical places to visit as Country X and - barring the collapse of the entire system - I could probably use a break.
(To be fair: This trip was originally planned as a graduation trip for The Ravishing Mrs. TB and Nighean Dhonn, our youngest. They mentioned that they was going and I helpfully invited myself along.)
At the time, the cost of plane tickets would have been about double what we had in credits from 2020 (therefore, 50% more in current dollars). The Ravishing Mrs. TB and I discussed it, then we made the plunge and purchased the tickets. It was a gamble that the tickets would not go back down in price, but at the same time with selected dates, it is also a gamble that if you do not reserve tickets, you will not get the dates or times you want (because arriving at midnight in a foreign country where you do not speak the language is, well, awkward).
Near the end of last month she checked ticket prices again - they had doubled from what we paid, or had exhibited a 70% increase in cost overall.
Now admittedly airfare overseas is not something that impacts most people (not even me, usually). And it is a bit hard to have sympathy for individuals complaining that their trip to the French Riviera or the Bali coastline is "unattainable" due to price increases (I, myself, am sobbing into my coffee as I write this). But a 70% increase in price in a two year period is a sign of things rapidly accelerating beyond not only control, but affordability.
Does it impact me? Sure, a little. What is true in international flights is true in domestic flights as well, and I have definitely seen an increase in the cost of getting from New Home to The Ranch. And it will impact any ability I have to go to train in Japan (which, to be fair, is the last trip I would likely give up and will do everything in my power to do until it simply becomes unaffordable).
As is evident to almost everyone, prices are going up. On everything. And will have impacts in ways that we cannot fully understand until we get there (the term "distorted markets" will come to have a new meaning).
And no, oddly enough, I suspect none of us saw a 70% increase in our salaries over the last two years. After all, the rest of us dwell here, in the real world.
And yet they like to tell us that inflation is only up 7% or 8% (or whatever they're saying these days). I've not seen anything go up only a few percent. The items I buy (or used to buy) at the grocery store have gone up 20%, 60%, 100%, 200%. We complain about it, but then, they've been talking about redistributing wealth for years now.
ReplyDeleteLeigh, I have surrendered any sense that the inflation reports mean anything when I heard that the current administration was using the "mode" of gas prices (most recurring number) rather than the "mean" (average) of gas prices to prove that gas prices had gone down. Add to that, of course, that inflation is calculated not using some of the items most impacted by it - food, fuel - and the numbers are just made up to manage appearances.
DeleteOur experience has been the same as yours in terms of price increases. And it has impacted how we think about what we purchase and where we go.
The redistribution of wealth has been a long time goal of some beliefs and organizations. I suspect, however, they will not like how it turns out in practice.
Wow, that is quite a jump in price. I feel sorry for families who HAVE to make the decision to buy now regardless of price because of a family emergency. If economy continues to slide, airlines might consider having some type of 'ticket retainer' account reserved for emergencies like that. Where a person can pay over time and reserve a future price discount. Maybe they already do - flying is a very rare event for me.
ReplyDeleteThey may need to go that route - honestly (and we are by no means in hard way at the moment), coming out for my father's funeral was more than a bit of coin. I, because I know I am coming out once a month, try and purchase as early as I can (although Southwest keeps offering sales, which means rebooking and travel credit - all good of course, just a little confusing).
DeleteI am aware that some airlines in the past have offered the equivalent of bereavement airfares (with some proof, of course). Perhaps that still holds.
I will continue to fly as long as my mom is alive. Where it does impact me is that likely I will do less other trips.
Between the prices increases and the amount of product shrinking (also a price increase) shazam!! Look at it this way TB, the number of people flying will drop and only those with the means will be able to fly, like those elected to Congress........... :(
ReplyDeleteNylon12, you would think so, but 90% of the flights I am are still 100% full. It is the rare one that has open seats. It makes me laugh a bit, knowing that two years ago we could only fly two to a row. Those were the days of glory...
DeleteThe unintended consequences of the costs were indeed what I was thinking off. Business travel has already been readjusted as business found out they need to send employees to less places (thanks to The Plague), thus disrupting the whole business travel industry (and it is an industry). The same happened and will continue to happen with tourism and pleasure travel. Whole regions and in some cases countries depend on tourism as a major portion of their income. What happens when that goes away?
A friend of mine who does a lot of air travel is saying that the level of service has declined. He’s lost luggage, and scheduling have suffered. But that’s up here for Canada so who knows…?
ReplyDeleteGlen, it is hard for me to evaluate that. I really only ever fly Southwest (unless it is international), and the service there has not dipped at all. I know some people do not like Southwest as the "cattle car" of air travel, but I have never noticed it as any "worse" as any other airline - and frankly, the flight attendants just seem cheerier.
DeleteIn terms of luggage, that is one thing I have definitely changed as I only do carry-one now as luggage does seem to take a lot longer to get out (and I am only going for a week at a time).
To be honest, the biggest issue with air travel remains air travelers.
Besides inflation, I'm sure a lot of the increase has to do with the pilot shortage and also the government crackdown by Buttigieg to heavily fine airlines for cancelled flights. The net result is a limited commodity and economics that adjust the remaining seats to what the market will bear.
ReplyDeleteI believe most people think of airline flights as a fundamental right these days instead of a privilege and a convenience to those who can afford the price.
That is quite possible Ed - the pilot shortage for sure. I wonder for the US crackdown how much that impacts airlines largely working internationally. Of course, some destinations are far more desirable (and thus expensive) and fuel is definitely more expensive.
DeleteI would agree that a great deal of individuals see flight as a fundatmental right, but I would also argue (I think) that government and the industry had a fair amount to do with that as well. Certainly airports are underwritten by local governments that have a vested interest in people flying instead of driving or taking a train.
We just bought international tickets a week and a half ago for my MIL to fly home. (She is sitting in Japan on layover right now.) They were almost identically priced to the ones we bought last fall for the exact same route. The only change that I could see, is last fall, there were a lot more options to choose from. These had far fewer reasonable options (short of more legs) and we had to choose between a layover in Japan of 1.5 hours or 12 hours. I would have chose the 1.5 hour layover but my MIL doesn't like to hurry so she is on hour 4 of her 12 hour layover. It really makes me shudder at the thought and I hope things improve by the time we make our next international journey home.
ReplyDeleteInteresting. Back in October, I checked on tickets to Japan in the event that our training happened next year. It was about 25% more than when we went in 2020. To be fair, it was right after Japan reopened. Checking just now for about the same amount of time in the future, it looks like it is about the same, 25% higher than 2020.
DeleteThe G20 today agreed in principle to a digital vaxx passport for international travel.
ReplyDeleteWell, on the bright side then, I will have more money to hike domestically.
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