02 November 20XX+1
My Dear Lucilius:
Between my missive of two nights ago and today, Old Man Winter has made his arrival with a vengeance: a full foot of snow has fallen. It certainly makes me glad I did my walking last week and did not wait until now.
Snow – really any inclement weather – has an odd magic about it even in such a situation as we find ourselves now. In earlier days it would have been an inconvenience, a thing to be managed and planned around. Now it effectively shuts everything down with a soft sort of thud. The snow will melt of course, and then come back and then melt again, until we see the other side of it in March or April.
If there is any blessing in this, it is that what shuts us down shuts almost everything and everyone else down as well. While it is not certain that we will not have “visitors”, the chances are greatly reduced.
Especially if they were walking when this hit.
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I left you with a bit of a puzzle in the last letter. I laid out for you the geographic location and situation of our town, its likeliest threats, and the puzzle of what to do given a town split in half by a road (and by sentiment) with the most likely risks coming from two particular directions in what could be quick attacks (or any direction in longer directions, of course).
I had originally thought of the school building this town still has from the early 20th Century. It is brick (which is a plus) and is somewhat away from everything else on flat land, thus giving a clear field of fire. Unfortunately it suffers from one defect: it is a bit far.
The school sits about ¼ of a mile away from the center of town – a little farther for some (like myself), a little less for those closer. The idea of getting everyone there in short order, let alone with the essentials, is a bit daunting – and in the direction of at least one of the threats that could come quickly. Yes, I suppose we could “store” things there, but that also creates a second problem of security , a problem I am not ready to deal with at the current moment.
Given that – which still have potential – I was forced to cast about for second options. Oddly enough, one was right in front of my face: The Post Office.
The Post Office (which shares a building with the once-upon-a-time gas station and mini-mart) is literally in the center of town. The “bad” news is that it is literally right next to the highway that runs through town. The “better” news is that it is made of masonry blocks, has a pretty clear field of fire, and is literally in the center of town – at worst a one minute transit for anyone.
We have used it before for various things as you may recall, so I believe we could reasonably get the current engaged population inside (perhaps not long term comfortably, but reasonably). It has limited points of access in terms of doors and windows which could be fairly easily barricaded – or so Young Xerxes and his nascent band of stalwarts assure me; I am not military engineer. The roof is obviously not stone of course, so that presents a bit of a fire hazard, although I suppose that tin roofing (could we ever find any) could be overlaid.
The problem, as I am defining it, is what would be the most likely occurrence. If history is any guide at all in similar situations (as if economic collapse was all that “similar”), attackers come in two types: raiders and settlers. The settlers are the far more pernicious (Ask the Britons how the Angles, Saxons, and Jutes worked out for them) but do not strike me as the most likely. It is from groups that are similar to what came through in July that we need worry about more: the raiding bands that seek only to loot and move on.
Could both locations work? I do not know that there is not a place for a short term and long term solution. And surely I do not have all the answers; all I have is a need and trying to find the best way to fill it.
The immediate need, of course is the short term one. Another benefit? Much of the current work could done inside, a plus given the weather that has just arrived.
Sometimes even that which seems to shut us down can be used to our advantage.
Your Obedient Servant, Seneca
It always used to amaze me how deep snow insulated the sound. We don't have that kind of snow around here though.
ReplyDeleteSeneca has quite a task begging his attention. Modern towns simply aren't built with the idea that they may have to be defended at some point.
Leigh, I am too - our snowstorm this February re-emphasized that for me.
DeleteSeneca has the classic problem that many places will have in the event that there is some kind of unpleasantness. American towns and cities were built to facilitate transport and people, not keep them out. Likely in Seneca's world, lots of places are having to make the same determinations.
American homes in general are built for High Trust societies.
ReplyDeleteWhen I was far younger, I was amazed how German Homes and Businesses often had steel roll down shutters (deployed every evening). Homes and businesses were built of stone and concrete. Exterior doors were steel or very solid wood.
When I asked my German friends, it was because of "Turks". Moped Gangs and all that. Political correctness wasn't a factor back then.
A "locust gang" would have to surprise a German Farmer or walk away if that farmer was armed.
Not so much with American homes. Almost nothing in it to stop a bullet nor a stout man with a strong kick. Seattle in the 70"s had a criminal known as "Super Foot" that used to study folks' behavior, visit when all was gone to work and simply kick in swiftly the targeted door. Nonviolent but quickly effective.
The group dynamics of Birch worries me more than "Locusts". That and winter-spring hunger is an often-bad situation.
Michael, having in the not too recent past been to Switzerland and Germany, that was my experience as well - especially German houses, which are pretty solidly built (I suspect weather has something to it as well).
DeleteAs to group dynamics - those are worrisome; I fear that at the moment feelings are running too high to change that situation.
Way past time for both Seneca and Pompeia Paulina to at least become familiar with the limited stock of firearms Seneca has, even with the small ammunition supply available. As both Leigh and Michael pointed out American towns/homes haven't had to provide for defense for the last century and a half. Indeed the greatest danger may be that half-starved neighbor across the street.
ReplyDeleteNylon12 - I suspect that Seneca is (in spades) familiar with what he has.
DeleteWe are not a people that expect to have to defend ourselves anymore. The slow breakdown of the high trust society is something that John Wilder has often spoken on.
In this day of age, I'm not sure I would opt to barricade myself in a school or a post office. The Alamo comes to mind as do sieges of castles. It would be fairly easy to put the building under siege to keep everyone inside while the rest go raid at will. I would guess few if any would have the appetite to trust all their most important stores to the post office ahead of time and couldn't carry it there quickly should the need arise.
ReplyDeleteEd, I think that's fair. On the other hand, I fear most local construction would not be up an actual attack. And fleeing might work - or might not; people are easy to run down singly.
DeleteI suppose Seneca is counting on two things: no heavy weapons (as would have been used in castle sieges) and raiders that are more interesting in taking things and leaving than starving people out.
Not a military guy, but my assessment of isolated strongholds is they make good graves.
ReplyDeleteSolar chargers, drones for info, the best shots in town with the best rifles they can get, and some sniper hides to discourage invaders might work for a while. Eventually this sort of thing all devolves to a weapons and numbers game. If one side has them, they expand to a wider radius, overrunning weaker groups to solidify the border and put it farther from main sources of supply. (towns) If they are weak, they get erased. This is the story of civilization, why we have towns, city's and states in the first place.
First person I would look for would be a good chemist. Poison gas or fuel air explosives would work well against a crowd of barbarians and the feed stocks might still be around- Then hang the dead from the old telephone poles coming into town as a warning.
Sooner or later , gonna have to get serious. Hanging onto notions of civilized behavior is not going to work in a world of warlords.
Look at a drug cartel or a mid east terrorist gang for behavior hints.
Hopefully I am completely wrong about this.
Anon - Thanks for the feedback.
DeleteI read your comment initially and then ruminated on it over the day. I do not necessarily disagree with the your conclusion (although I will note that the initiation of towns, cities and states is the ability to have a territory to defend which has generally - thought not exclusively - meant a place to defend, except for nomadic civilizations), but it struck me that the "hole up" philosophy is what often seems to be the fall back position of many survivalist sorts of types. It is one of the staples of the "Do not live in cities" theme, that a location in a city or suburb is inherently indefensible (and a rural location is). Perhaps that is a correct way to think about it, but it does give me pause for thought.
America today is not set up for a low trust environment. To harden my place, would require winning the lottery (hard to do, when you don't try). We realize that if targeted by a pack of ferals (2+), we're likely doomed. A Seal Team buddy, informed me back in the early '90's, that in real life, a Rambo, up against a few pro infantry, is dead meat, unless he can outrun/evade, the pursuers.
ReplyDeleteStick and siding houses don't stop handgun rounds, much less rifle rounds.
We've had the discussion, where, if our supply system breaks down, so will law and order, then people will get needy, cranky and desperately hungry, right away. I pointed out, we could die of starvation, disease or in a hail of bullets, but peace and plentitude, would be out of the picture. My 2 dependant, elderly, invalid, ladies understand. There won't be any place to "bug out" to, the only "sanctuary", will be our Lord.
T_M - It is funny you mention this - this was a thought that I had as I drove to work this morning.
DeleteAs I drove by the locations of open streets, neighborhoods with windows and doors, businesses with full glass windows, cars with not much more protecting the contents than sheets of glass and maybe a loud alarm system that does nothing, it struck me of how much of a high trust society we believe we have.
Arguably I have some preps, but I am realistic enough to accept that in the event of things truly going sideways, my chances of long terms survival are pretty low. That is okay; as you point out, this is not really my real Home.