Some random economic thoughts:
1) Retail, on the whole, is dying. If you have a bit of interest, I might recommend you check out dailyjobcuts.com. It keeps a running tab on closures, layoffs, and bankruptcies.
Beyond just this basic observational basis - name a single mainline or Big Box store that has not had some level of layoffs or closures - I have the most interesting note from The Ravishing Mrs. TB on local malls: "They are 50% empty of stores, and what is left is mostly junk).
Realistically of course, blame the InterWeb - but not really. Blame stores that have made it a pain to shop there or return there versus Amazon, which is effectively creating an ecosystem where one almost never need shop outside of its confines: Clothes? Check. Food? Check. Gadgets? Check. Entertainment via books or streaming? Check. Fresh fruit and vegetables? If you live within delivery distance of a Whole Foods, Check.
Who wants to deal with crowds when you can practically do it all from your home?
2) As a result of 1) and in conjunction with it, the minimum wage job is dying as well.
Why? Retail is one of the highest users of the minimum wage, and those jobs are going away. Food service? Believe me, the move to kiosks in places like McDonald's or Wendy's are here to stay. As the cost of labor increases, the push to automation will grow - as will the continued growth of services that deliver food (via things like Ubereats).
The decline in minimum wage affects two groups: the unskilled and the just starting out (via graduations). Where before these jobs were available to reflex to, they will begin to vanish.
3) Autonomous, electric vehicles and the push for them is not going away. Never mind they are not economical and environmentally destructive, they will keep coming up until they get close to being right and then the press will be on for us to adopt them - first cities, of course (you just need to make "driven" cars illegal downtown), then out to the suburbs.
Who does this impact? The list is rather long. Auto industries, of course - with autonomous vehicles the need to "buy" a new car becomes less, combined with ridesharing (e.g. Uber, Lyft). Any service which involves a driver - taxis, limousines, even the aforementioned Uber and Lyft. Any industry touching an automobile - auto dealerships, oil change shops, even service shops. And delivery services, eventually.
4) Who is not impacted in all of this? The trades, for now - yes, automation continues to march forward but much like the assembly line, things have to be standardized before they can be impacted by automation (for example, plumbing and electric wiring are run per builder, but there are many builders and many older homes). Science and tech workers, for now - but give Artificial Intelligence time and between automation and AI, many basic science and tech jobs will vanish as well.
There will always be the outliers of course - small botique shops, those catering to the wealthy or well off, and the underlayer that people like myself frequent - used book stores, discount and thrift shops, etc. But I suspect the next twenty years will find millions of unskilled and skilled laborers out of work and with little or no opportunity to re-enter the workforce.
And then ask the logical question: What happens next?
I can't count the number of times we go to multiple stores and can't find something we are looking for. And it's not always something... exotic? Just normal things. Like shoes and socks in hubby's size. Proper fitting underwear that we can't even get in Big and Tall stores. In the end we order online. Hubby's favorite "store" is eBay. I shop amazon, but multiple other online places, too.
ReplyDeleteWhenever we can we buy local in the city. Or at least in the state. We shop a lot in Lafayette.
(No food delivery hits us. They all stop a 1/2 mile away. None go past the University); but we enjoy eating out when we can so that is not a problem.
Malls have been dying for a long time. And more will now that SEARS couldn't change its image soon enough. Most malls have only big city stores which I suppose is good; but try finding a good computer store anywhere. It's really hard. Even more so if you like to do-it-yourself like our youngest.
That's what killed Radio Shack. They quit being true to their heritage, just because it could be bought ready made. They didn't want to maintain a small section for the do-it-yourself person.
Reminds me of when we were car shopping in California back in the early 70s. Hubby wanted a standard shift. The dealer said "Nobody buys those any more; but we have plenty of automatics." We left and never went back. Ended up buying a van in Texas.
Electric vehicles are a way for the government to control where and when you go. Even more than now. People who buy them are idiots. What is the life of the batteries on these cars? From what little I have learned replacing the batteries is more expensive than the car, so dealers will still be needed. Planned obsolescence. No one builds for longevity any more. I am sure there are businesses that will suffer though.
Environmentally destructive reminds me of the CFL light bulbs they insisted everyone had to buy a few years ago. Nothing like a light bulb that requires you to leave your house and get a hazmat crew if it broke.
Good, thoughtful post.
I sometimes wonder if the people pushing to implement all this have actually ever tried to determine the "what's next." Most of the options I work out are pretty gloomy.
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ReplyDeleteSorry TB, for some reason my Ipad and phone won't let me post. That, or maybe you've decided to moderate your comments so pests like me can't crap in the comments? If this is a repeat I apologize.
ReplyDeleteBut, I see signs of hope everywhere too. I look at the guys driving all the insanity today, and I've watched the people being driven by it and I've noticed a couple things. The people in charge are evil SOB's. Were it not for their place and position most would be in jail. Or pushing a broom for minimum wage. Their followers are dummies who can be bought and sold for pocket change. They will sell their souls for a few coins. They will eat their seed corn without a thought for the future.
Contrast that with the rising numbers of preppers. Minimalists. Small holders. They are smart, resourceful and talented. I think reality is going to reassert itself sooner rather than later - and a lot of today's nonsense will go away.
Linda, all good points. I remember when Radio Shack was an actual electronics store.
ReplyDeleteIn terms of computers, they just went online like everything else. Occasionally the big box stores have them at reasonable prices.
You are correct that we nothing about battery replacements - we should be well into our first cycle of replacements; I wonder why we have not heard anything about it?
Leigh, I am pretty confident they have not. That does not matter of course; what matters is your intent and your heart, not your results. Even if they are bad ones.
ReplyDeleteGlen, nothing on your end at all - I have the "review comments before posting" on to prevent the spammers (and man, I get some - I should post on some of the gems at some point). More just me falling behind on my reviews.
ReplyDeleteI am glad you are hopeful. Maybe I do not see the same signs as you based on where I am currently living. I do fear that when the fools eat the seed corn, they will come after mine. They always do.
glen i read somewhere that the percentage of sociopaths in the population of ceo's is much higher than in the general population
ReplyDeleteI've seen it too. The reasoning I saw was that some workplaces actively select for psychopathic traits. They stab their bosses in the back, undermine their co-workers - you name it. I believe it to be true for some companies and when I see it I just quit. Life is too short...
ReplyDeleteDeborah, that may very well be true simply because of the fact that many of the characteristics of a successful CEO are probably very close to those of psychopaths.
ReplyDeleteGlen, you are probably right in a round about way. Companies want deep dedication and precision like focus - something that some psychopaths may share as well.
ReplyDeleteOn the whole - yes, a pretty good thing to leave when you find it.