I am, in a lot of ways, the last generation that grew up with The Cold War.
My cousin was killed in action the year I was born in Vietnam. I remember very vaguely the Fall of Saigon. I heard about Afghanistan and wars of attrition years before a great many people alive now did. I remember the Soviet Congresses and Solidarity and "Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall" (and ultimately the tearing down of said Wall). I remember the constant, low level background of fear that a nuclear conflict could break out at any time. And I remember traveling in Eastern Europe in 1990, when suddenly (and magically) there was hardly a Communist to be found.
It is with this mindset that I view the current ongoing angst of the US/Russia/Ukraine with a certain jaded eye.
You may recall that back in April I wrote on this as well as things back then had (seemed to) reach a fever pitch. We are back to said fever pitch, if you have paid any recent attention to the media.
The intent of today's post, of course, is not discuss politics or policies (I try not to do that, both for conversational purposes as well as for the fact that when I have tried, it goes poorly). The point is to discuss the rather fascinating alarmism that such things seem to engender.
Being a very part-time amateur historian (perhaps lover of history is a better concept), one can always see the parallels to past emergencies: this is "critical" moment, in which if we do not respond, something terrible is going to happen. So terrible, in point of fact, that we have to push everything to the brink of saying we will engage in military action - beyond all the usual "send the diplomats home, call each other bad names, threaten each other economically" sorts of things that make for good action pose speeches but make little difference.
What strikes me is that for so many - at least those pushing themselves out there - this is somehow a new thing. Russia (in this case; your enemy of civilization may vary) is apparently a hair's breadth away from destroying the entire fabric of Western Civilization in the current dispute (or in other, previous, disputes).
Is it possible? Sure. There are still nuclear weapons that are undoubtedly pointed here (and, sadly, at our friends in Alta Canada as well). But is the same as the post 1947 World confrontation between two ideologies that spawned a 43 year chess game of almost nuclear holocaust? Not really.
To the younger generation, it is hard to explain what having true world ending stuff in the background is really like. We have become used to the sorts of long term disasters that are going to happen "someday soon"; we are not used to the "It all ends now" the way it used to. And I was on the tail end of the Cold War; to those in the 50's and 60's, the reality was even more overbearing (insert 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis here).
And so I read the speeches and the flailing of arms and the "This is our line in the sand - no, this is. Wait, this one over here. Do not ignore us, we are ready to do things." - and quietly go about my business of feeding the rabbits and practicing Iai and making dairy products and the host of small things that fill my life in meaningful ways.
I suppose the possibility for such a world ending scenario exists. The reality is, it always has. And if the past two years has taught us anything - or for us older ones, the previous Cold War - it is that living your life in fear of an enemy you can neither influence nor control or somehow become agitated and vocal about a crisis in a life where you have lived through so many, is simply a path to constantly not living your life at all.
I am in fear of a 'Wag the Dog' scenario right now. I am well over the limit for being drafted, but I have two young 20 ish year old kids that could be conscripted in the U.S. service. To defend our borders - yes. VITAL interests - maybe.
ReplyDeleteBut I haven't seen why U.S. has a role to play in Ukraine. Didn't the same people who pulled out of Middle East learn anything ?
Wag the Dog - not my doggie Mr. President.
Intrepid Reporter blog has a pretty good analysis.
I wonder if that is even possible now, A. It used to be these guys could cook up their narratives and schemes behind closed doors, and the mass media would cover for them. Nowadays everyone has a cell phone, everyone can put a camera up at anytime, anyplace - and the whole show is on Tiktok or Gab 24 hours later.
DeleteThe reality is that when the US comes under weak leadership, the bad guys get adventurous. The Chinese were making noise about Taiwan, now it's the Russians, and if I don't miss my guess, the Iranians will be along any moment to take Uncle Sam into the boards.
I like BCE too...
I think it still can be done though on a fairly limited scope for the reasons you mentioned Glen. Bush Jr. and the "weapons of mass destruction" hidden in Iraq come to mind. That whole mess had the advantage of not being verifiable by anyone until after everything was already over. I would think any future wag the dog scenarios would have to also do something similar.
DeleteAll - Good commentary and thank you for it.
DeleteMy initial reaction is that we may not end up in a "wag the dog" scenario in a typical sense (e.g., trying to hide something). My fear is that we will write a check that we simply cannot cash but then have to anyway. And I scarcely have confidence that the group that design the Fall of Kabul 2.0 will do any better.
As to availability of independent information - yes, it is out there. Unfortunately, so is the ability to shut down said information (although not completely, of course.
To Glen's point - at this point if one balloon goes up, I assume that all will go up - what is there to lose?
I think this is all a game of chess. Unlike Crimea, Putin/Russia probably have no desire to take over all of Ukraine. I think Putin/Russia's sole goal in this matter is just to get a concession from the U.S./Nato to not get so close to the Russian border with their gear. I still think this is saber rattling for now but I am unsure at this point if the U.S./Nato will give the assurances that Putin/Russia wants.
ReplyDeleteIf I were supreme commander, I would give no assurance and just sit back and see what happens. Even if on the off chance Russia invades Ukraine, I probably wouldn't do anything. It has been shown many times before that slapping sanctions on Russia does absolutely no good.
Ed, I would tend to agree with you that this is more of an action to secure Russia's border from NATO expansion. That said, I also think that there is no way that US/NATO give such assurances - they have pretty much not offered to do so to date, just "stop it".
DeleteWere it me, I would not get involved either. Yes, it involves the US (yet again) not living up to our "word", but then again given the last year, I doubt that is a consideration for a lot of folks.
I'm not sure our "word" means much after two failed wars in a row, three if count our involvement in Iraq as a war and failed diplomacy bids with North Korea and Iran over nuclear weapons.
DeleteOh, I completely agree with you Ed. It is just that Our Political And Social Betters (OAPSB) seem to still think that it does.
DeleteI've lived through all that. I remember hiding under the school desk for a nuclear strike. Asked Sister why a desk would protect us when it was expected to drop 3 miles down the road. We were a high value target. Wasn't happy with the question. But that was the back drop I was raised in. Kennedy assassination, Cuban missile crisis, ice age was coming we are all going to die, Vietnam, Jimmy Carter and at some point you just become numb. The media and politicians can only tell you so many times that the world is ending and if you don't vote this way you'll be responsible for unimaginable consequences. This latest crop of politicians may be some of the worse I've seen in my history on this planet. But we are now seeing the problems raising children on TV's and electronics. The characters on TV with the smart mouths and in your face has foster people that make me sad for what we had and lost. Politeness and respect. I despair that if a 1941 happened today that we have no one in charge that's an adult.
ReplyDeleteMargi
Margi, I have read of such things although I never did them (although apparently, my high school had an amazing Cold War bunker hidden away.
DeleteYou bring up an excellent point about Crying Wolf too many times. It is what we do at this point; the world is constantly ending in some way.
If a 1941 event were to happen today, I worry about two things: how we would respond (I see few signs of competent policy) and the fact that even if we could respond, the country is too divided to rally together. 50% of either side, I fear, would simply say "Why?" and start preparing for what came after.
Have you read the book Command and Control by Eric Schlosser? If not, I highly recommend it.
ReplyDeleteI have not Kelly, but duly noted! Thank you!
DeleteThe absurdity of the media madness and their Russia narrative, makes me think that it may have been absurd back in the day, when it wasn't.
ReplyDeleteAs has become all too apparent, it was always a lie.
Just So, it feels so manufactured at this point. We are constantly told they are almost ready to invade, they have huge build ups and there is simply no way to end this except 1) Russia to retreat; or 2) We support offensive action.
DeleteOddly enough, I have a fair number of Russian friends via The Book of Face. Nice People. Pretty much like us in a lot of respects.
When facing an enemy as secretive as the USSR, we overestimated some of their capabilities. That's normal. Prepare for the worst. I get that in the 1950's thru the 80's. Heck commies riddled our government, education and media in the 50's. McCarthy was spot on.
ReplyDeleteSince Putin came on the scene, I've wondered about all this a bit deeper now than even in the 1980's with pre-Gorbachev and Gorbachev. I don't know how calm we'd be if Russia put weapons in Mexico. It's like a reverse Cuban Missile scenario. So, I can see their reluctance to let that just happen. But the folks over there are a lot more clued into their history than we are. The Ukrainians remember their great grands being starved to death by the Sovs. And they will likely never ever forget it. And will do what they can to exact retribution. They aren't Americans.
We are the most forgiving, helpful country that exists. And viewing the world through our perspective is not healthy. For us or others. Roll Iraq and Afghanistan b-roll....
But our leaders now, I think they make a crisis to cover their real problems. Omicron comes out right about the same time as the trial for the procurer for the pedophiles in government and media. Co-rus response helped change an election. I don't really trust anything they say or do now. And that is what frightens me. That's a mile marker on the road to societal collapse.
Yes, every bell and whistle is screaming right now. The deceptions aren't even designed to deceive, just distract.
DeleteA rearguard effort to cover the last of the looting of the treasury.
STxAR, I am sure as we continue to unwind Soviet history, we will find where we were wrong - and where we were right - about their abilities.
DeleteThey are (I think) very conscious of their history and their suffering. I would be willing to hazard a guess that few Americans know that level of history about Russia.
If they were to place missiles in Mexico - or Mexico to become an active ally of Russia - of course we would react the same way. We fool ourselves if we would not (although, perhaps that would finally seal the border).
I do not disagree that it is being done in at least some fashion to pull attention away from other things. It is the cavalier attitude of it all that alarms me.
Just So - It feels like a single thing will happen now, a single piece of gravel will touch the house, and all the glass will shatter at once.
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