The Five Days Of Pre-Christmas Shopping

 This week - at least in the last 20 years or so - represents the kick off of the Christmas Shopping Season.  It has acquired something of a life of its own. First we had Black Friday (The day when stores hoped to come into profitability for the year).  After that we got Cyber Monday (the InterWeb's retort to Black Friday).  Then we got Small Business Saturday (to assuage everyone's guilt about shopping at the chain stores).  And finally, Giving Tuesday (to assuage everyone's guilt about shopping at all).  Throw in the un-named Sunday (Sleeping Sunday?  To gather strength for the rest of the course?) and you have the Five Days of Pre-Christmas Shopping.

Of course, everything is anticipated to be completely different this year due to The Plague.  I have already seen that several large Box stores will not be open. I also anticipate that lots of other locations will have limited or no "Black Friday" events at all due to The Plague (Which, I am sure, almost everyone can agree on being a good thing no matter what your opinion of The Plague.  There are only so many videos one can watch of people fighting each other for large screen televisions before one questions the values we hold as a society).    

The InterWeb, of course, sniffs at all of this.   Virtual events mean none of the risks of crowds or government intervention ("Kids, you know only two of you can be within six feet of the screen shopping") and all the potential of a good retail season.

But even they are acting atypically this year.

I have now received notice from at least two of the online shopping sites I frequent that Cyber Monday is opening early this year.  And by early, I mean as of last week.  And the offers are pretty good.

On the one hand, I get their reasoning.  They are anticipating - with good cause - that shipping this year is going to be more difficult than ever and the earlier people purchase, the earlier the product can ship and the more likely it will get there.  That is a sane, sensible marketing approach.

But I also wonder if it is not a representation of the economic uncertainty of our times.

These are economically uncertain times.  And this has been not a great year overall for the retail community.  I do not wonder if part of this is also driven by the simple fact that businesses are hoping that they can get their part of Five Days of Pre-Christmas Shopping now, based on an anticipated decrease in the total spending power that consumers will have to spend.  A sort of "The early business gets the (fill in your country's currency here)" approach. Which could very well be true, of course.

Do I think the retail season will be bad for retailers?  I do not anticipate it being so particularly, if for no other reason than (at least here in the US) our citizens have (to a large extent) shown a complete and total inability to prepare for hard times.  So we will (once again) spend like there is no tomorrow.  

But I sincerely doubt it will be like years past.  And I anticipate seeing another wave of closures and bankruptcies come January, when the numbers are crunched and things do not add up.  Even a reasonable Christmas season will probably not offset the economic harm done this year.

I do not wonder - give it five years or so - like so many other things, The Five Days of Pre-Christmas Shopping will slip into the same category as business closed on Sundays or meeting people directly at the airport gates, a memory of older days that will come to be completely believed as untrue and mythical by later generations.

On the bright side, I suppose, we will be spared the lines of shoppers freezing themselves at 0400 in line to get a rather small free bag and $5 gift card.