04 November 20XX+1
My Dear Lucilius:
The snow has simply refused to stop.
Off and on these past two days, we have continued to see it drift down in fits and spurts and long periods. We are up to over 2.5 feet at the current count.
My time, when not staying warm, has been spent shoveling out a path to the greenhouse and outhouse and beehives – the beehives, obviously, to remove the snow if it gets to be too much or starts to melt and risks getting water into the hive.
I was never overly fond of this time of year and this sort of thing is a great reminder why that was true.
The other part of my time has been spent making plans.
Pompeia Paulina has gently suggested that perhaps I am spending a little too much time and energy worrying about a great many people that are not directly my responsibility. And to some extent, I am forced to confess that she is correct – after all, beyond her and Young Xerxes and Stateira, I certainly have no other family here (and who knows if I have any remaining out in the real world).
And yet, those people asked. Whether or not it is correct, that makes me responsible.
The other fact that goes through my mind is simply the fact that not everyone in this small geographic area sees each other in the same way.
This snow is a blessing in disguise, Lucilius. It is forcing people to stay inside where at least the only people they have to confront is the people in their house. But I would be a naive fool to not think that these things will not boil over in the near future.
Food is likely the number one factor in that: with the onset of Winter, any harvesting not in a greenhouse is over. And not everyone has a green house. And it is fair to estimate that there is a range of preparations and food, from well supplied to “might not make it through the Winter”.
I have no idea where those fault lines lie, only that they are somewhere. And like most faults, they will – sooner or later – rise to the surface.
I have started writing down “What if?” and “How about?” scenarios – not that they improve with me writing them down of course, just that they help to get my thoughts onto paper for consideration.
If we are incredibly lucky, we get through this Winter into Spring with a minimum of those faults appearing.
That said, Lucilius, my luck in everything else is seldom enough to convince me that it is worth giving any consideration to.
Your Obedient Servant, Seneca
There is no such thing as luck; there is only adequate or inadequate preparation to cope with a statistical universe.
ReplyDeleteRobert A. Heinlein
To get anywhere, or even to live a long time, a man has to guess, and guess right, over and over again, without enough data for a logical answer.
Robert A. Heinlein
Everybody knew that winter and that pre-Kroger's era starvation spring before the planted seeds bear something worth eating. Even the deer are poor eating due to their near starvation over the winter.
I see a lot of distress for Seneca as the less prepared beg then demand he get them something to eat from the "LUCKY ONES" who have enough.
Thus my earlier comments about respectfully allying with that prepared widow.
Hope, as they say, is not a strategy.
DeletePerhaps the act of writing down what he sees will help Seneca to think a bit more on what ifs. Some people just don't think beyond the next meal or hour, remember that intelligence bell curve?
ReplyDeleteNylon12, I certainly gain more from writing out about my problems than just thinking on them. Helps me to organize my thoughts. In that, I suspect, Seneca is like me.
DeleteOf course, it has also been said that no character is smarter than their creator, so he has that against him...
The human factors are against him. The story of the lifeboat comes to mind with the addition that already some part of the "to be rescued" already have nasty grudges against others in the village.
ReplyDeleteRemember the burning of that tavern? Hungry, angry people are irrational and destroying the homes of the better prepared so "they suffer also" isn't an unusual result in history.
Goodness just breaking the windows can make most American homes into an uninhabitable structure as cold and snow blow in.
I'd concentrate on salvaging those willing to work together and keep the dangerous folks out of the campfire myself.
Not everybody can be saved in the limited supplies of this village. All can be lost trying to keep everybody "happy" until the faming issues come into play. The widows home full of food might have an "accident" and that would be horrific to the survivors.
Intelligence bell curve seldom applies when hunger and anger are in play. History is full of examples of otherwise smart folks killing each other off so they could survive another day.
Michael, I would hesitate to speak for Seneca, but I believe that those "in" and those "out" of the lifeboat are pretty clear. It is not a matter of allying with those "out" as much as it is figuring out how to save those that are in, especially given proximity.
DeleteAnd as my point was keeping the out folks from destroying the lifeboat.
DeleteA foreshadowing of the coming "troubles" heading for USA INC? I'm afeared so.
ReplyDeleteI'm generally the optimistic type for me and mine, but there is so much ignorance, hate and discontent "out there" that most people are just chance away from "bad actors" happening upon them.
T_M - If it is foreshadowing I am far too weak a seer to foresee it. That said, we have already seen elements and signs just in general society, let alone The Plague, of such a thing.
DeleteI don't envy Seneca. One huge challenge is coming up with something of a plan. Another is that, to be truly successful, people must be willing to cooperate with the plan. And people are always the weakest factor in any plan.
ReplyDeleteLeigh, I do not either. Just in current real world, trying to plan something like a schedule for a team can be a challenge, and that with all the conveniences of the modern world. How much worse to have to negotiate it in a world where none of this is true.
DeleteThe cooperation is a factor as well - people reach out when scared or frightened; they are sometimes less willing when the implication of that reaching out is manifested.