The Decline And Fall Of The Service Economy

 If The Plague of 2020 has demonstrated anything to us, it is the inherent weakness of the Service based economy.

For those of you that have been in some sort of economics class in the last 35 years, you will remember the progression:  herding, agriculture, handcrafting, guilds, industrial, service.  The service economy represented the upper echelon of development for any economy.  It was the apotheosis of the worker:  freed from the drudgery of blue collar and farm labor and relieved of having to do everything by hand, the worker would enjoy the fruits of modern technology, avoiding risk of injury and burnout so prevalent with those other "old fashioned" models.

 And then The Plague of 2020 arrived with all the subtlety of a hurricane.

 We have learned a few things about the nature the Service economy now.  The first, and perhaps most important, is the word "service" can easily be redefined as "non-essential".  This was discovered by (literally) millions as their jobs, effectively determined to be "likely to spread disease" by the way the were treated, were summarily removed from their ability to work by their companies or their local and state governments.  Apparently, their services were not required.

The second thing we learned - which in fact, I suspect we secretly knew all along - was that the service economy was very dependent on people desiring and being able to access services.  Take away the ability to spend on services - like restaurants and entertainment - or prevent them from using them by locking customers and clients away from each other and while the need and desire may still have been there, the ability to actuate that need or desire was gone.  And without access to those services, those services went out of business.

The third thing we learned - which I do not think many people anticipated - is how many services are really desires more than needs.  Entertainment comes to mind as the clearest example of how when the service was shut down, people realized they did not need it.  The decline in the ability to go out and shop has been replaced by the ability to order our shopping in.  Even I occasionally need new articles of clothing:  I do not need to go to the store to get them anymore as they can be delightfully delivered to my door.

Which brings us to the things most people have not learned - but will.

The first thing that people will learn - well, really be reminded of more than learn for most - is that the future belongs to people who are considered either "essential"  or in a position where the question of "essential/non-essential" no longer applies.  If you provide a skill or service or item that is needed, you have a greater change of retaining an income (not guaranteed of course, just greater).  And if you do so in a way that is not dependent on someone else providing you the ability to exercise that skill or service or make that item, so much the better.

The second thing that people will learn - and the lesson is already out there for anyone paying attention - is that in the question of essential and non-essential, service and non-service, automation is supreme and more and more coming into its own.

Industrial robots have been around long enough that most of us take them for granted.  But more and more now, service related "robots" are coming into our daily lives.  For a great many on-line activities now, an algorithm - a form of robot - will answer basic questions for you, track your packages, allow you to make reservations, give you cash at an ATM.  And now, with the rise of The Plague and a desire reduce the risk of transmission, I predict (to be fair, it is not a stretch) that this trend will continue.  The food server, already on the decline, may very well be replaced by a combination of ordering via a tablet or online and being brought to you via robot.  And I predict (again, not a stretch) that I will see a fully automated restaurant in my lifetime.  The great thing about robots is that they work through night, day, disease, and will likely never be considered "non-essential".

There are, of course, ways to exploit all of this:  career paths that will continue to be useful or new ones based on trends such as these, learning to simply live more by what we can make and trade and barter and less by what we need to purchase, or simply becoming indispensable to someone or some organization.  But the writing, I think, is clearly on the wall:  If we have not entered the Post-Service economy, we are on the brink of doing so.

Sadly, like most economic changes, I fear many will be caught in the headlights.