Transfer Of Power

 Those of us alive today are uniquely in the position of seeing not one, but two world paradigm power shifts.  Most people never see any.

When I speak of a world paradigm shift, I am talking about the balance of power shifting away from one state and to another (or more than one).  The Rise of The Athenian Empire - and its fall to Sparta, who fell in turn. The rise of the Persian Empire, followed by its fall to the Macedonian Empire.  The Rise (and Fall) of Rome and the West.  The rise of the Aztec Empire - and its fall, in turn.

In other words, not just a change in international politics, exchanging one player for another.  A change in how the national or international system works.

The first, in my lifetime, was the fall of The Soviet Union in 1989 and the collapse of Eastern Europe and the Warsaw Pact,  From 1947, this was the paradigm of the modern world.  Countries were either pro-Western or pro-Eastern (yes, there was a Non-aligned movement, but it never achieved the power of the other two).  When the Soviet Union fell - characterized, more than anything else, by the falling of the Berlin Wall - the world worked differently.  There was a unipolar world and the United States and its allies were in charge.

We are now seeing a second paradigm shift.  The fall of the United States in terms of world power and the rise of other nations.

Think of it, if you are a nation doing national power calculus.  The U.S. still has the ability to project power - it is an old boxer, who still has the power if he connects - but it is literally tearing itself apart politically, culturally, and socially.  If you are a potential ally, to ally yourself with the U.S. is to accept all of its cultural values and norms as correct and yours as invalid.  Additionally, the U.S. is currently in a race to see precisely how much additional debt it can take on in the smallest amount of time possible ($1.9 Trillion in the most recent relief package, another $2.25 trillion at a minimum in the new infrastructure bill, with at least one more proposed bill outstanding.  Their solution is to raise the tax rate on corporations to a level higher than one of their opponents, China - and assure their citizens that the cost "will not be passed on".

In other words, a dis-united country rapidly approaching financial distress.  If you are thinking this has a similarity to The Soviet Union in the 1980's, you would not be wrong.

If I am one of the United States' current opponents - Russia, China, Iran - I really do not have to do much, if anything.  I just have to sit back and keep a certain level of confrontation up - maybe not war, just stress, the kind of stress that wears.  And wait.  The baton of power is already slipping from their hand; it will just slip more all the more quickly.

My prediction?   In future history books,  the period of dominance of the United States will be recognized as 1945-2020.  

To those who think that this will only be a slight inconvenience or even a slight gain due to a lessening of "spending", think again.  The fate of second rate powers in a winner take all Realpolitik system is not the sort of thing to write home about.