Last week, for the first time since March, we had a gathering (socially distanced and masked, of course) of our men's group. It was a pleasant evening on the back porch (they usually are here in November), and as we sat and talked, we of course brushed up against the concept of "The New Normal".
Sitting there chatting on the back porch, running the past week through my mind, I realized that my view of life going forward has changed. Pretty drastically.
At work and based on where we are, I suspect that the minimal staff onsite continues now through June and possibly through the end of 2021. Given the fact we are just entering the Winter season now, I cannot see anywhere that plunging in for what would typically be the height of the cold and flu season makes any sort of sense. I also suspect that mask wearing (or other versions of it) may be with us forever; the legal issues of infection from commercial locations (or even workplaces) have yet to be broached. No company is legally going to want to be responsible for an employee that dies because the encouraged people to come in to the office too soon.
What this means, as I thought about it, was that at least for me, things are going to be maintaining pretty radically from what they were a mere 9 months ago.
Going out anywhere, at least for me, gives something of a level of discomfort now. I was surprised how uncomfortable I felt just in the presence of two individuals whom I had known but not seen in some months. The joy of interpersonal conversation for me, at least, is largely gone. One is always watching, out of the corner of one's eye, if everyone is wearing one's mask appropriately and precisely how close (or far) they are. And where they have been recently, and who they have been associate with, and were they wearing their masks and distancing.
That flows across lots of things, of course. Any major social event where there are people, including both entertainment and social events (like church). Any sort of shopping or commercial expedition which is not a specific need and requirement. Anything where there is a going to be a group of people.
Even now, my expeditions are largely to specifically known places: Iai training. The gym. The grocery store. The book store (although these continue to fall as well as stock has decreased). The Rabbit Shelter. But this is really about it.
Travel is another thing that I am looking askance on long term. Yes, I am continuing to travel back and forth to my parents as long as I am able, but that is part of a longer term plan. Travel for personal pleasure - at least flying - is probably also on a long term hold. I would really have to want to go somewhere to contemplate going through an airport and flying (yes, I know there is evidence suggesting that airplane filtration systems are effective, but as the airports become more full the risks go up. And travelers are, on the whole, not terribly smart creatures).
This really means two things from a practical point of view. The first is that I am will be spending a great deal of time at two locations: New Home and The Ranch. It probably means less and less travel by plane and much more by automobile. It also means that I am going be become less and less of an economic contributor, both in travel and in goods purchased, to the economy as a whole.
Yes, I understand that at some point this gets solved (Hopefully. But that is unknown as well). But even then, the reality is that communicable diseases are always there. The flu and cold season so far, so much as we can tell, has largely disappeared. It makes sense of course: people who are masked up and avoiding contact with each other are less likely to transmit any number of diseases. Add in other fun diseases like tuberculosis. All of this does not go away just because The Plague is managed.
This is the unwitting thing that those that pushed so hard for these measures will likely have to try and unwind: once people have started down this path, it will be very hard to get them off it. For some (like me) they will not want to get off it.
I do not often make predictions, but I suspect at some point in the not too distant future the refrain will be completely changed from begging people to mask up and stay away to getting back out and stay close.
I suspect that, at least for me, it will fall on deaf ears.
Living down here in the land of sunshine and summer all year, I have little time for the "mask and stay away" mentality. I can wear the thing for a little while, then I get... antsy. I study the numbers, and it doesn't appear to be the killer of healthy folks like the 1919 virus.
ReplyDeleteMom said sun and fresh air were good for you. , so I spend as much time in both as I can. NYC engineered their heating to keep a room warm with the winter windows open for the Spanish Flu. This stuff is loose and we will live with it or die with it as the case may be going forward. Will the shot be 40% effective on average like the current one? IS THAT GOOD ENOUGH??
Comorbidity is the curse. As is the person that excuses their own "forgetfulness" while accusing me of being a murderer when I can't stand to wear it any longer. It has eaten through families down here where diabetes is rampant. COPD appears to be a death sentance if you catch it.
If I get a positive result, I'll limit everyone's exposure to me. I'm not heartless. But this suspicious, "you are dangerous" default we are on isn't good. If we were SERIOUS about it, we'd SEAL our mucosa, and enforce quarantine of infected people. If we ensured our testing regime was accurate, and reporting was, too, I'd be much more apt to believe it. It only took one massive trauma motorcycle crash death listed as "Covid related" to tell me what this was about.
*rant off*
LOL. Thanks for saving me the trouble STxAR. The subject reduces me to spitting and gobbing too. I heard it best when another blogger said that all mass movements eventually turn into either a corporation, a grift, or a cult. COVID 19 has become all three, the same way environmentalism has. This one is going to be with us forever... or at least till the economy collapses.
Delete+1
DeleteSTxAR and Glen - So first of all, thanks for being polite and frank. It is a healthy discussion - and at least around here, that is what I am trying to promote, a discussion.
DeleteAgreed that masks are uncomfortable, and agreed that a great deal of it may depend on where you are and what you do. If you live somewhere that you are not in close quarters (for example, where my parents live is quite rural and they do not see many people) it will probably be much less critical. If you are in an urban area with a bunch of people, the odds go up.
I am, suppose, in somewhat a unique position in that I am not in a high risk group nor have any significant potential co-morbidities, but my parents are both over 80 and by default are by dint of their age. So what I do does have a potential impact on them. Agreed that co-morbidities are a risk - and the fact that we are not calling these out as risk factors is a tragedy of science.
Nor, STxAR, am I a fan at all of the "You are are inherently guilt" by not wearing a mask. It is a remarkable thing to me especially of the church right now: we are more willing to condemn someone to social hell for not wearing a mask than we are to actually suggest that there may be a hell and they need to do something about that. Or any of the other social activities that can potentially result in harm to others.
Your last point was one that Glen made on his blog a few days ago: that if we really believed this was a pandemic we should act like it. We do not, so the questions remain - and in that sense it is about control rather than public health. And yes, actual efforts in testing would be more useful than the rather long road we have taken to get here.
Yes Glen, I know it bothers you. Thanks for being restrained.
There is no way to prove it was caught in the workplace.
ReplyDeleteUnemployment will skyrocket if small businesses are forced to close again. The economy will tank; but that's what is needed for "the new world order".
You have to do what you are comfortable with, TB; but I agree with STxAR.
Linda, could not agree more - but the actions the governors have taken appear less about actually controlling the disease and more about exercising power. The reality is that states - mostly "Red" States, to be clear - have demonstrated that you can open small business and still manage the disease if people are sensible about things. I will also note that government employees are seldom considered "non-essential" employees, which makes the whole classification system suspect.
DeleteTB, it sounds like you're sucking on "the pill," but haven't swallowed it. Please... spit it out! This thing has been politicized from the start. Mark my words; COVID is going to evaporate like morning dew, right around inauguration day, with millions walking away either feeling that Biden was their savior, or feeling that they've been, once again, duped.
ReplyDeleteMy valley is home to 134132 people, as of last count, give or take a few thousand illegal aliens. The total case count for COVID... since the start... is 2341. That's less than 1% of the population. The total number of deaths attributed to COVID... since the start... is 97... That's .007% of the population! And that's only if you want to believe that COVID was the killer of every one of these people, and that the flu or even the common cold wouldn't have exacerbated the pre-existing conditions that were the actual grim reaper. Compare that to the number of deaths by other causes... oh, wait... you can't... Try it yourself; do a search on the number of COVID deaths in your area. Chances are, your county website will have that info right up front. Now; try doing a search on the number of deaths due to, say, diabetes, heart disease, drug/alcohol abuse, suicide, traffic accidents, even homicides and the like; not so easy now, is it... Now, ask yourself "WHY?"
It sounds like you're being successfully scared into submission, TB. ...Don't fall for it!
Pete - Thanks, first of all, for caring (sincerely. I really mean that). And at some level, cynic that I am, there is at least a case to be made that "it is the end of the world" will change to "it is not so bad after all".
DeleteThat said, I still think there are a couple of things to be reasonably concerned about. One is the potential longer term effects which seem to be manifesting themselves in certain portions of the population: there are credible medical personnel (to be fair, the articles are not peer reviewed) that denote potential damage to the cardiac tissue and neurological impacts, something that a flu would not leave one with. There is also some colloquial evidence I have read of people who have recovered (let us assume for a minute they are not lying about that) that state they have significant other long term health manifestations.
Add to that (in my case) the fact I am traveling back and forth on a regular basis to see my parents, who are both in their 80's, and I feel (at least now) that a little prudence is in order.
Who knows - the rest may simply be my inherent introversion rearing its head.
TB, I have kind of always been leery of being near any other human...I guess that's the introvert in me. I feel more at ease now that people are forced to wear masks outside their homes. Maybe I'm a bit of a germophobe too so it makes me less anxious to be out and about. Besides some inconveniences like less variety of groceries, the covid isolation/lockdowns have not really affected me overall, I guess it's because Alex and I live quiet, reclusive lives.
ReplyDeleteRain, I think and you Alex may be my spirit animals.
DeleteI think it there is a cultural aspect as well: in Japan, for example, when we have been there to train, people regularly wear masks on the the train - not everyone of course, but enough that it is noticeable. This year when we were there in February (just as it hit), we all wore masks when we traveled to Tokyo. No one thought anything of it.
The place I am really becoming concerned about it is the impact on the elderly. I can see how this has impacted my parents and have read at least one study that states that there seems to be an alarming trend of those in nursing homes and retirement homes declining in health and dying at a faster rate. The fact that this was not recognized as an issue is bothersome to me.
I think the other really good point you make is that it depends on your lifestyle. To you, there has been little impact. To us, there has been some but not a terrible one - more like a long series of inconveniences. To those in tight urban areas, it has been devastating.
Which sort of begs the question why people want to live in cities in the first place.
My mom is in an assisted living facility. She has gotten less able to care for herself, and more ornery at times, because of the lockdown. In her room 24/7. Can't visit with family, etc.
DeleteI read somewhere of someone's mother just deciding life wasn't worth living and quit eating.
Scary and sad. I do understand your reasons because of the age of your parents. I am glad you are able to see and visit with them.
Be safe and God bless.
Linda, I have read these stories as well. The fact that people are not more troubled about this is bothersome.
DeleteYes, the job change has been advantageous in ways I did not expect.
I wish I could disagree with you on your first point but I just can't. Growing up on a farm full of space, I have always felt that people were invading my personal space which didn't include all of the six feet radius now required. So I am amazed at how easily my feeling of personal space invasion has expanded so easily to take up that entire six feet radius. I had a guy attempt to shake my hand a few days ago and it ended up with an awkward hand grab of my fist bump. It took a few moments after that before we could step back a pace or two and restart the conversation.
ReplyDeleteOn your other point though I'm of course more optimistic. Although the scientists I have heard on the subject say Covid-19 will be with us for the next century, it will eventually be reduced to yet one of many childhood diseases that we get early in life like RSV and then it just becomes another seasonal cold that goes around every year or two. BUT, the big caveat is what happens to you and I who haven't gotten it yet and there is a chance that should we be vaccinated, we still have a significant chance of the vaccine not working. It is heartening that the news today said one top vaccine is 90% effective, but 10% of the people who get mislead and end up with Covid is still a chunk of people.
I do think you are wrong when it comes to the belief that cold and flu seasons have gone away. My kids have already brought home their second cold of the school year and in a nearby district the flu is making the rounds. When I think about this, it reinforces that even when we are wearing masks, we aren't protecting anyone but those around us and that it is just a matter of chance as to when we roll craps and get Covid.
Ed, I am glad it is not just me. I have not ever really been a "people" sort of person - shaking hands with me is always awkward at best, so I lose nothing by this.
DeleteI did see the news as well about the Biontech/Pfizer vaccine and it is hopeful - although with all such things, I worry that they are reading too much into the initial results. They did state the results were preliminary and that is always the problem: people grab on to the preliminary data and then feel disappointed when the data turns out to less than what they had hoped for. The other risk, of course, is that it mutates into something else which is more dangerous.
Interesting about the cold and flus (hope the kids are doing well). My comment was based on data coming out of Germany. On the one hand if true, it does indicate that masks are not as effective as we might think (although I might pick a bit at the data in terms of if kids are wearing masks correctly all the time). On the other hand, it probably means we need to social distance all the more as people pretty much have bad hygiene overall.
"On the other hand, it probably means we need to social distance all the more as people pretty much have bad hygiene overall."
ReplyDeleteBINGO!
I am in the 'atlantic bubble' in Canada. We have had under 10 infections for 6 months or so. I hope that it stays the way it is otherwise our new normal will look much like it does now..but we already have some strict mask and entry rules. It is one of the god things about living in an area with horrible weather! I hope a vaccine is ready soon. As a note, even with low infections in the region businesses are still hit hard..but not as bad as other regions. A* is a teacher and kids wear masks all day at school..or they are supposed to. My point? None. I want the new normal to be the old normal.
ReplyDeleteEGB - I would argue it is very density based. Not surprisingly, urban areas are more impacted. Where my parents live, The Ranch, is also very sparsely populated and they have had few issues (farther down the mountain, of course, it is is worse) - the advantage of living just far enough out that it is "inconvenient".
DeleteThe business impact though - at least here in the US - is impacted on a statewide level, not just in the "low density counties". That is where the real damage is.
Just again pointing out the wisdom of Ol' Remus, "Stay away from crowds".