04 June 20XX+1
My Dear Lucilius:
This missive will go from better to worse.
On the better front, we are enjoying some of the best weather here. The Winters here are harsh and Summers acceptable; the Springs and Autumns can be glorious. Yes, I know – it seems odd to be discussing Spring in June, but technically it remains correct. Our days remain in the 70’s Farenheit, our nights in the 50’s Farenheit. It is glorious.
The garden is in full swing and the bees are out and about. The quail chicks have emerged from their hidden den and are scuttling around the greenhouse with the rest of the flock. It will be time soon to putting them in a small sort of tractor to get them outside during the days.
Young Xerxes stopped by yesterday as I was working outside. We finally have a sighting of what we will call the Human Locusts.
It was an accidental sighting, at least on the part of the Human Locusts. A hunter out the evening before in a blind was passed by a group of individuals, tromping loudly through the countryside without as care in the world as to the potential for anyone to observe them.
Armed? Of course, although in this part of the country that would not be surprising under previous circumstances, let alone now. At least one long arm and side arm for each, possibly more. From the description of the hunter, they were not bearing any great amount of body armor either, which is useful for filing away.
The conversation, from what the hunter heard before they drifted out of range, was largely on some dwelling they had just “visited”, and the fact they would need to do so again in a few days. And the fact that “the group” would have to start ranging farther afield.
The message has burned up the local airwaves, as you can imagine.
At tea with Pompeia Paulina – this is, apparently, now a thing and although a cup of hot liquid in the afternoon is not quite my cup of tea (see what I did there, Lucilius), the company and small treat more than makes up for a warm drink on a warm day – I ventured a comment that this was at best unwelcome news. Apparently it is all that Young Xerxes can talk about with Statiera; the Post Office/Community Center is awash with what the next step will need to be, and all the road wardens (for so we are now called) have been requested to redouble our vigilance. It is not a question of if something will need to be done, but rather when and how it will need to be done.
And in such matters, Lucilius, it is always better for you to choose the time and place, not for those arrayed against you.
Back to my Sun Tzu, apparently.
Your Obedient Servant, Lucilius
I can see how this would be a hot topic!
ReplyDeleteI've never read Sun Tzu (perhaps I should) but his strategic advice reminded me of what Uhtred, in Bernard Cornwell's Saxon Tales, would always say, "never do what the enemy wants you to do."
Leigh, Sun Tzu is probably worth reading at least once (there are, I am sure, lots of free versions out there). His advice is often what we would consider "common sense" these days: Do not start a war you cannot finish. Long wars create economic hardship. The best victory is the one you do not have to fight to obtain. And like Uhtred, do not cooperate with the enemy's plans.
DeleteIn our neighborhood currently, an odd event generates all kinds of social media. I can only imagine what it would be when it truly matters.
At our local ranches that border the highway, I've noticed several which appear to be multi-generational complexes. Several home that are built around a large hay shed / shop. The larger original home close by, with several homes arrayed around them by about a 100 yards. I'm guessing their children or family relatives. All using each other as a safety ring in case there is a need. If a car breaks down, there are friends / family close by. A medical emergency - the same. If the Grands are still around, but need occasional looking after or certain tasks done, there is someone there to keep a close eye. So all can maintain their privacy and yet be ready for whatever comes.
ReplyDeleteSeems to be a sound strategy to me. The property tax burden is shared as well as the maintenance on the property which is occasionally needed.
When we were in Greece, our guide noted that farming in Greece is a different model than the US. Farmers live in town and go out to their fields instead of living in separate areas. It is a different version of what you describe, but certainly offers the same benefits.
DeleteYou know, those Greek farmers are onto something. Far less paved roads out to the fields and work can be shared to bring in harvests so all benefit.
DeleteIt is a very different view of farming that than the traditional American one, or at least the 19th Century American one. And from driving through their fields and orchards, it certainly has not impacted their ability to produce.
DeleteKeeping track of the passages the locusts use and when, important info to share with others. The time of the "three s's" is fast approaching TB.
ReplyDeleteNylon12, the local neighborhood groups do that even now on social media (I do not follow them, but my wife does). It is odd to me that they only think of it in the "it is an inconvenience/noise issue", not in the larger applications.
DeleteWhat's that phrase TB? Normalcy bias?
DeleteNylon12, what I meant to convey is that a loud noise issue or someone parking their boat out on the street where the CC&Rs clearly say do not do it will generate a great deal of comments and concern on the local boards. To a lesser extent, what little crime we have - mostly mailbox break ins - also generates some level of concern. I do not think people have made the larger connection about how simple noise and CC&R violations can escalate into more severe challenges - so in that sense, a normalcy bias indeed.
DeleteWhen I take the kids fishing, they want to catch, not fish. So, I put a week before a can of wet cat food with some holes in it to create a feeding station for the fish. I know where they will be and the kids could throw in bare hooks and catch fish.
ReplyDeleteWorks for bandits also. Just remember your chumming for sharks, not minnows. Plan for the wipeout and have your retreat planned out with overwatch for really aggressive bandits so they get a 2nd ambush, maybe a third as you "Flee".
Michael, as you correctly point out, in such a potential situation the interest of such people will be focused. It would be easy to direct that focus where one wanted, given time and planning.
DeleteAre you interested in some known details about real life bandit/foot soldiers' groups in history? Strengths and weaknesses?
ReplyDeleteIf not feel free to delete this.
For example, I can BET that this group has a base camp nearby. Why? Well walking is a 1 MPH situation over time.
The trained Roman Army could do better and THAT gave them tactical advantages many times in their campaigns. Wounded Bandits slow the group to a wheel barrel-litter crawl or about 1/2 MPH at best. Abandoning your wounded is BAD for group (even bandit) morale.
Second reason for base camp nearby. WATER marching soldiers in temperate climate need at least 2 gallons of safe water per day min.
While personal water filters exist, they are SLOW to process water stealing time from marching time of bandits and if surprised by enemy action would have to be abandoned or grabbed in a chaotic hostile fire situation.
The basecamp has a well with good water, probably decent shelter.
If it was my basecamp some sentry and fighting position work done as so even my wounded bandits in Rest & Repair could defend it.
Again, the Roman Army was famous for building a quick little fort everywhere they stopped to sleep. They even destroyed the fort before leaving as not to give an enemy a base of operations behind them.
Why did I use the Roman Army so much? Like our story bandits they had military discipline and foraged most of their food while on the move.
An undisciplined mob would never survive first contact with a serious defender. Folks would disobey orders even try to become the NEW Leaders by traitorous actions and so on.
Look to modern Mexican gangs and antifa. Military discipline, very dangerous.
Michael, my understanding is that a Roman army unit was expected to make 20 miles a day with a loaded pack (60 - 80 lbs total).
DeleteIt does raise the question of how well organized the bandits may be (or may not). Interestingly, apocalyptic literature gives varying degrees of organization in such an event. It is not been revealed to me (yet) where this group falls on the spectrum.
Apocalyptic literature is interesting source material.
DeleteThey tend to forget little things like Roman Soldiers were trained to repair their own gear. Like Footwear.
After motorized infantry became a thing the ability to march into contact and things like boot repairs became a lost art.
Patrolling to contact was a short dismount from the chopper or vehicle to a expected enemy location. Not multi-day, even weeks like many of American civil war campaigns were.
Historically boots/foot gear were one of the first things looted from the dead on a pre-motorized battlefield. As noted often enough in even stories about Napolean's Waterloo campaign and such.
The stories of General Washingtons troop at Valley Forge without foot gear marching with rags tied on their feet was true.
Little things like water needs, weight of several days water maxing out your soldiers packs @ 8 pounds per gallon, boots being destroyed after a few serious weeks hiking all over rough terrain and even how fast unmaintained roads and cross-country driving can eat up vehicle suspensions, gas milage and tires.
Not to mention the occasional return fire destroying a tire or creating wounded to abandon-kill or haul back (BEST for group Moral) to some sort of base. For ???Medical Care???
Michael, I wonder how much facts like those will be apparent to folks in the (hopefully not to happen) event. The items you suggest are the sorts of things that people that ponder such things think of, not those that are effectively moving from one world to the next at the time of the event. Most locusts, I suspect, would only be looking out for the next day.
DeleteFootwear repair is something that is truly under-rated in our current world. It would be a great skill to learn (as if I actually more time to do it).
I stopped here as not to swamp you with possibility unwanted data. There is far more if your interested.
ReplyDelete