I have to admit that, on the whole, I am a bit of a contrarian. I will not do things that people do because they tell me to do them, that they are the "best" for me (maybe they are, but it is a lot less than people say that it is). On the other hand, I will do things that other people will not do for the same reason (supply my own dairy product needs for example, or train in an martial art that in a lot of ways has no modern practical application). Label it perhaps that at heart I am an anti-authoritarian and really do not like to be told what to do.
It is within this context that I am thinking forward to whenever "normal" is declared again by our political, social, scientific, and industrial betters.
The overwhelming push, once this happens, is going to be "get back out there". Spend with abandon (you will be told, perhaps sotte voce, that to do so is "unpatriotic"). Start attending large social gatherings like sporting events and concerts because we need to demonstrate that we are putting fear "behind us". Patronize those previously scorned and outcast-like businesses of restaurants, bars, and the dreaded hair salons because "we need now, more than ever, to support our friends and neighbors".
Now individual parts of this are true. Like or not in the post-service economy we have become, without spending there will be no economic growth. And possibly, attending that sports game or concert shows that you are demonstrating some sort of moral courage (not from my point of view, of course, but the argument could be made). And small businesses need continuing local support - as they always did, of course.
But on the whole, I find these to be specious arguments and activities that I will not be engaging in.
The contrarian side of me notes the careful choice of timing. During the Plague of 2020, we should always have supported small businesses - and those who are in positions of leadership at every level should have done everything in the power to do so. For the most part, they did not. Now - whenever that "now" is, I suppose it will not matter - many of those same businesses will be gone. There is little that can be done for them at that point.
The attending of large social events merely puts the fact that another large pandemic breakout is effectively going to happen at some point - not to mention just the reality of colds, flus, and various forms of communicable diseases that have only subsided because we are nowhere near each other. The concept that someone re-attending such things shows we have no fear could be equally be made to say we learned precisely nothing about how diseases spread.
As to the spending of money - if the past year has demonstrated anything, it is that having debt paid down and cash on hand is the surest measure of survival in hard times. To somehow pretend that spending is "patriotic" is to ignore the actual past and embrace a future in which no hard times will never happen again.
To be clear, whenever the "all clear" signal sounds, I will not be jumping in. My "new normal" is simply the life that we have been living this past 9 months - in fact, it has intensified the need to be more frugal, go less, and associate less. There is no sane reason to do it at this stage, or really any stage going forward.
Public health needs are real. Safety needs are real. But I will not push myself to spend or be out more often simply because suddenly it is "the right thing to do".
I never did get the spending is patriotic rah-rah stuff. But our economic system seems to require it for growth or whatever.
ReplyDeleteReturning to normal? Sadly, people have very short memories about situations and events. The problem, I think, is that fear is much more deep-rooted, and impossible to reason away. In order to go back to the old normal, people will need to not be afraid anymore. I wonder how they're going to accomplish that.
Leigh, oddly enough, I think the people that have been against the mask mandates and the people pushing for a return to normal (let us be fair, largely the government as they want the tax revenue) will be the odd bed fellows of the vanguard. It will be the folks that have been very conservative in their approach to this - in some ways more in line with the incoming Blue administration - that will be the more difficult to accomplish.
DeleteMy thought, for what it is worth, is a national campaign co-sponsored by government and business, something along the lines of "Let Us Get Out There". Celebrities, technical experts, business people, all stating that the time for caution is past and now is the time to restore our connections.
"Alone Together" morphs into "Together Together Again"...
DeleteI spoke with a friend who was afraid that there would be no more Spectacles and Sports and I contradicted him and said there would be Spectacles and Sports when the Government needed to "Wave the Flag" again. It is a form of hypnosis. The ancients had a differing meaning for the word glamour.
Alone Alone is the better situation, yet humans convene by nature. Where there are covens there are conspiracies.
You are all too prescient in your predictions about the coming psychological warfare, and their morality play has grown just too tiresome. They probably canned the commercials in the same sessions where they canned the "we're all in this together" propaganda to save on studio fees.
Just So, as you point out, this will all be resurrected in force when there is a need. For all of my consideration that this is a real issue slightly more than the flu (as I write this, two relatives are in the hospital with The Plague, one not likely to survive), as a group and government there will be a great falling over each other to "get everyone back out there".
DeleteThat is where, honestly, I think the nay sayers have fallen down. Had they consistently held with the current proposed protocols, they would absolutely be in a position to say "Wait a minute. We do not believe that. We need to have more time, more safety" - and would have a peg to hang their position on. They cannot reverse course now and so will only reinforce the positions of those they have been grousing about all this time.
I picked two businesses to "help" by shopping there almost exclusively. Both are small, family run places.
ReplyDeleteThere was absolutely no change for me in the way I lived this year, macro level. I won't change that if they ease up. I won't forget either.
I'm a bit worried about some shortages that are around. But we will see how that rings out in the future.
STxAR, that is a sensible way to go about it. I have chosen at least one business to do this with as well and will probably continue more down this path. It has, at least for me personally, also meant I will continue to reign in on my spending for larger businesses.
DeleteThe shortages - we will see. Like everything else, assuming we all get "back to normal" it will take some time for those businesses to get back online, if they do at all.
Don’t forget to put your old ignorant political animosities aside too! I have a sneaking suspicion that now that America has voted properly, the plague will mysteriously and coincidentally “go away”. As will certain violent political groups that score their points in the street with brawls, arson and rioting. Unity will be what saves the nation dontchya know!
ReplyDeleteWhy... what is that horrible stench that’s come over TB’s blog? It’s so offensive, I fear I will have to leave! 😆👍
Our rulers don’t make any money from small businesses and as a group or demographic...they are often the most bothersome too. I really have to admit that I admire the skill with which they took them out. A fake plague... it really is ingenious when you look at it that way... In the new normal, small business will now be impossible.
Glen, I will say that I will be very interested to see how the "new" administration deals with disturbances. I do not think they go away; those that agitate are going to demand far more action than what any administration, red or blue, is going to be able to offer.
DeleteHonestly, I anticipate at some point even my little corner of the InterWeb will become obnoxious to someone and I will be warned to "unify". The call for unity too often becomes the call for uniformity (although those calling for unity never see it that way).
The odd thing for small businesses is they (at least historically) have provided the bulk of employment in the US. Cutting them off in some vain hope to get more "compliant" businesses seems like removing one's nose to spite one's face. Not that I do not believe people are that foolish - history says otherwise.
I do think small business will survive, just in a different fashion. We are actively discouraging people from having storefronts and employees. It does not mean that small business will not exist, just not in the fashion.
The businesses that require low initial investment and have low overheads and can run on slim margins might survive. Anything else is toast.
DeleteAnd that is another monster that the new rulers must placate: an increasingly hungry, angry underclass. That money will have to come from somewhere. It’s a good thing our big corporations are run by notoriously altruistic men like Bill Gates, eh? Rest assured, the spotlights will be on him as the smaller businesses quietly close their doors.
The upper class does not need the middle class or their small businesses, TB. These guys are not so much stupid as they are disconnected. They don’t understand the middle class, most actively hate them, and as long as their bubbles of prosperity hold... everything is good.
Many normal, good folks that worked hard and played by the rules are going to get a rude education on how the new normal works.
Glen, I will say that I do believe that there is a certain portion of the population that by their actions make it rather clear that anyone that is not at their income level or position is a lesser person, even if their words say otherwise.
DeleteArguably many people are getting an unfortunate education. The other historical fact, however inconvenient, is this is how revolts start.
For me, I really didn't lose much due to the Plague. I have perhaps ate out less often but that is arguably a good thing for my health. The biggest thing I lost and miss are going to local cultural events but most of those even before the pandemic were socially distanced events for everyone but the participants putting on the show. So if that returns eventually, for me things will be back to the old normal.
ReplyDeleteMy spending patterns really haven't changed due to the Plague. I was mostly online before then and supporting a few local businesses and I still do that now. I don't feel the need to artificially support a small business just because they are local. One needs to have a good business model if they want to survive in both good and bad times and me artificially supporting them in a bad time isn't going to make them thrive but only bides them a small amount of time before the inevitable occurs.
Ed, in terms of social engagement I did not lose a great deal either except competing in Highland Games, something at this point I am giving consideration to if and when I would participate. Church attendance too I suppose, although that has been online and will likely to be for some time.
DeleteMy range of stores I shop at is extremely limited, as much due to my rather obscure interests as to any particular need. I suppose in terms of small business versus large business, my thought would come down to what constitutes a "good" business model. For too many, I think competing with larger stores or online stores that either spread out the cost of operation due to operating efficiencies or eliminates the cost of being local confounds the idea of a business model, at least in previous times. Plus, I think there is also something to be said about turning the world completely over to large corporations and stores that exist where I have no direct ability to procure the goods - food deserts for urban areas come to mind, for example.
One business model that always causes me to scratch my head is opening up a new restaurant only to have it serve the same three dozen meals that one can get at a dozen other place in town. The only way to make that succeed is to make it damn good compared to everyone else but what normally happens is you make one or two things good and become known for it. The problem besides trying to share pieces of the same pie with other eaters is that when the economy turns south, you can't survive off the income of that one or two known dishes. Due to a large Hispanic population, we probably had over a dozen restaurants here in town serving Central American cuisine. I don't know for certain but I'm guessing half went out of business this year.
DeleteAnother common business is the second hand/knick knack/consignment shop. We probably have a half dozen and all look like the were suffering before this year.
So when something like this comes along, it weans out the chaff and allows the wheat to settle out on top and perhaps become even stronger. But we also run the risk of these becoming so big like Amazon and Walmart that they actually hurt us in the long term. It is a fine line and probably not one that can be straddled.
Ed, I live in what would be considered a "foody" urban area and am very well familiar with the circumstances you describe - in our case we have multiples of almost every cuisine known to man. A great many replicate each other - some rather expensively; how much do you want to pay for a burger? In our areas the higher end restaurants have been the hardest hit, which is not surprising I suppose. Lower end restaurants - also known as fast food - and the excellent continue to survive.
DeleteTo use your second hand store example, those will likely go one of two ways: either in a straightened economy people will reach out to them or in a society that is abandoned things, they will perish.
The risk, as you put it, is there. My concern is that this is accelerated by heavy handed government tactics which crush an economy. It is like the did not think this through at all - and then, when they had a chance to think it through, they did the same thing.
If I were a small business owner I would be terribly upset and depressed right now.
I think Kung Flu is another Leftist monster that will eat its own tail. Fact is, folks on the Left need to make money too, and a lot of people, you and I included, have found that we don't NEED to buy this, we don't NEED to go there, we don't NEED... (fill in the blank). People will eventually go out to eat again, but it'll be a slow ramp-up. 'Same goes for "sporting" events, especially since the "woke" took them over, alienating the very people who pay the players' salaries. The Left is going to regret what they did, sinking the ship to sink the captain...
ReplyDeletePete, I know you and I disagree on the nature of The Plague, but I do agree with you that the reaction of the government will eventually eat themselves up. People are forming new habits - have been forming new habits - habits that will not go away easily, especially in a post-Plague economy where people are still nervous if they will have a job in a year. Same thing with concerts, sports - all that you noted. That I am aware of, every major sports league is suffering losses at a time when people should be watching as they cannot go out. Movies theaters and plays are - literally - dead, and I suspect we have seen the end of the movie era as we know it.
DeleteThe hard part comes for the government when they finally grasp that their tax revenues have completely declined. People's finances will already be stretched, and you cannot get blood from a turnip. That is when a great many people may finally give consideration to how we got here.