Over the years I have been a passive follower of Paul Wheaton and his Permies forum. Paul's focus is on humble living, permaculture, and sustainable technology. It is an interesting place if you have never been (membership is free and to my knowledge it is largely apolitical and deals with all things agricultural, permaculture, sustainable technology, food preparation, etc.; Friend of This Blog (FOTB) Leigh has been known to be there from time to time).
This week a short video he did crossed my inbox entitled "Prepare Now for Upcoming Changes". This is a subject that has been on my mind of late, so I watched the video. A transcript is below: copyright obviously belongs to Paul Wheaton and any errors remain my own:
"I'm sitting at a table with three strangers. Our host shares that she's thinking of going back to college to finish her degree in software engineering. She explains that she wants a job that pays better than her current job.
I say, "Don't do it." The other two people agree with me.
“Then what should I study so I can get a higher paying job?” I suspect that for any field of study, there will be a lot of layoffs. The most productive people will stay on, and you'll find that you'll be looking for work with your freshly minted degree, competing against people with degrees and experience.
Again, the other two agree with me. “What do I do?” I think if you live more humbly, save what you can, and prepare for a long-term unemployment, you'll be in better shape than most other people. And then you can solve work stuff from a perspective of strategy instead of desperation.
I then suggested buying some sun chokes and sticking them in her yard with no further effort. In two years, there'll be enough food to feed several people through the Winter. The other two said nothing. I guess I became too weird.
Most people go to college and take on debt. The idea used to be that you would then get a higher paying job and pay back that debt. With heaps of cash flow, you can have lots of fancy. In time, you can boost your income further to get even bigger fancy.
Three strangers agree that this is about to change. Three strangers agree. Do not take on debt. Cut your expenses. Save your money.
My wacky advice is to retire in two years, maybe sooner. Fill your head with homesteading, gardening, and permaculture strategies. Practice fiscal humility. I think that a humble home and a large garden will solve all sorts of personal problems. It is the road to gratitude. To get land, I want to propose the SKIP program. Joining our permaculture boot camp and my attempts to get hundreds of thousands of homesteads to do what I call gardening gardeners for big garden. Please see my content about an automatic backyard food pump. 30 minutes of gardening will feed you all winter. A humble home and a large garden solves almost everything."
I have to confess I find myself strangely ambivalent about the video. On the one hand, I have been haunted by the last few weeks of a sense that something is changing in the economy, something that I cannot see directly by looking at it but only by looking out of the corner of my eye. It is that nagging feeling that one gets when there is an object about to hit you but you cannot see it.
It is clear, even in my own world, that many college degrees are not worth the paper they are printed on for helping to find a job in the field of study. There are some of course; it is foolish to completely write college off as having no value. And the idea of "fiscal humility" is one that resonates with me and that I have never heard expressed in that light.
And yet, I question the large term application of Paul's philosophy.
Cost of living and Land costs are probably the biggest reactions I initially have. Yes, we can live more fiscally humble than we do, but if you are anywhere in an urban area (that many are because of their jobs), there is a level of fiscal humility beneath which you cannot drop without not eating or having a place to live. The second, of course, is land on which to have a garden (see above comments on cost of living in urban areas where career field may be concentrated). Home prices have dropped a bit over the last year but starting out 30 years younger, I cannot imagine trying to buy in any of the areas I have lived in for my jobs.
This whole thing disconcerts me a bit because I really like the message Paul presents. I am just not sure how it can be practically and largely applied.
Video: (Run time 3:10)
JohnD here. My background is software engineering, with ~40 years experience and 3 children now working in sw engineering/mgt. It is a bad field to go into now. My children tell me that junior positions are being replaced by AI as fast as companies can do it. What Paul said is good, but he left out a major item. Get out of debt now. Scrimp/save now. Never buy anything on credit. Amazing how “rich” you are when you’re not paying rent or mortgage.
ReplyDeleteJohnD - Thanks for stopping by!
DeleteIt is interesting you express that opinion about your career field and your opinion of it. I had a similar experience with a friend years ago who was a Ph.D. in a scientific field. He said that he was recommending his children not go into science: for all of the study and higher education and post graduate work one had to do, the benefit simply was not there.
Whether or not Artificial Intelligence is a long term winning strategy, companies certainly are acting like it is. It will result both in reduced head counts and, over time, a loss of those skills that Artificial Intelligence has replaced.
The out of debt suggestion is a very prudent and real one. A lot comes with that though, a willingness to live within one's means and and be content with what one has. Given that so much of our current economy is built on us buying things and services, it seems like a difficult needle to thread.
I guess I disagree in the sense that I think it has nothing to do with degrees and debt versus staying home and gardens. I think it simply has to do with work ethic and personality.
ReplyDeleteThose that have a strong work ethic and are not likely to be discourages about their situation will go far in either direction they choose. I have seen it time and again in my work career. Others who like to just survive and complain about their lack of advancement in life typically just stagnate in their jobs until they move on to the next.
I have seen the same thing play out in the stay home and garden area too. People like Leigh have strong worth ethic and never complains about life around her. In fact, she always seems very thankful for all that she has. Yet I see others around me that never seem to put in the effort and spend all their time complaining about what they don't have.
I personally fall somewhere in the middle of that spectrum. I know I didn't put in the work or maintain the attitude that some did but I also didn't sit around carping about everything I couldn't have either. My saving grace was that I had a bit of dumb luck and found a job where even that much effort and mental toughness allowed me to retire earlier than most and afford whatever I really desire, which admittedly, is much much less than what most of my peers desire in life. But had I put in the effort, I'm positive I could have achieved a lot more than what I ended up with.
My $0.02 worth.
Interesting thoughts (as always), Ed.
DeleteYou are right that Wheaton does not address any sort of personality aspects or work ethics in this video (admittedly a short one). Attitude can have a very big influence on things.
I suppose my "story" in this regard have been several incidents: one in A Sort of Hammerfall where I moved from senior level executive to individual contributor, or taking a job at Produce (A)Isle as a part time worker to help with our income, or even moving to New Home 2.0 with a job as an individual contributor. In each case the job was the important thing, not the title. But every one of those humble changes led to bigger things eventually.
Looking at Paul's food pump at Permies. Good stuff surprised I didn't see it before (maybe in my email now?).
ReplyDeleteFound a quote there:
Tradition is not the worship of ashes, but the preservation of fire.
The tradition of staying out of debt is as old as the Bible (OT).
Tradition of knowing how to produce a decent part of your food is well before the specialization era of "Prosperity".
Tradition of learning-figuring out how to fix-make your own stuff was old knowledge even before the Great Depression
Use it up, wear it out, make it do, or do without
and
A stitch in time saves nine
Tradition of knowing how to cook (not just reheat Grubhub) has kept plenty of bellies full for little "money".
Much wisdom about the Great Depression:
https://www.countryadventures.net/great-depression-sayings-quotes/
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/great_depression.asp
I agree with Paul that going into debt for a degree with a high % chance of being unemployable due to cutbacks and AI replacement is foolish.
As far as land costs, a story told by both of my Grands that lived in the Great Depression that plenty of folks lost their homes and farms on the courthouse steps to bankers (BLACKROCK) guarded by sheriffs for debts and unpaid taxes.
The family got together, decided WHAT homes were best for long term survival (best well, gardens and such) and they became multigenerational homes as so not see parts of the family become homeless.
You don't need to own your home, just good shelter and friends. You don't need to own that garden-apple trees and such. Just shared-agreed labor with friends.
Trusted friends, trusted family (sadly not all trustable, again Biblical) and faith in God has gotten folks through times of troubles.
Not like Depressions, wars and famines haven't happened before, eh? Proverbs 27:
Do not Boast about Tomorrow
…11Be wise, my son, and bring joy to my heart, so that I can answer him who taunts me. 12The prudent see danger and take cover; but the simple keep going and pay the penalty. 13Take the garment of him who posts security for a stranger; get collateral if it is for a foreigner.…
Oh my Michael the Anon again :-)
DeleteMichael, your relationship with Blogger always makes me laugh...
DeleteI do not go to Permies as much as I ought; it is quite an enjoyable website and an information trove. Joining is, I believe, free.
The sort of interesting thing (historically) to me is that the world that experienced the Great Depression before is quite different than the one that may experience it now. Then many people were at most one generation removed from agriculture work and some degree of self sufficiency; we are now 3-4 (or more) generations removed. How would this generation deal with that sort of situation? Somewhat differently, at least first I suspect.
I know ERJ did a post last week on careers that would suffer under economic downturns. If I just took myself as an example and we truly clamped down on spending, except for my rent (or mortgage if we owned a home here), fuel, and groceries, we would have a very limited commercial engagement. Extend that to thousands or millions of people and the gap becomes terrifying indeed.
Perhaps too much emphasis on college these past decades and not enough on working with your hands TB. Saving/stopping use of credit is a good strategy. Local Mom & Pop butcher/convenience store near me passes on the cost of providing use of plastic for customers, paying cash takes less out of your pocket. Not everyone can live on their own land as you said, less than a mile from me an 150 unit apartment building was completed in September, about 45% full, no land for them unless they rent a plot somewhere. I agree with you, Paul's message is good but......
ReplyDeleteNylon12, there was an overwhelming emphasis on college even back in my days in high school; the assumption was that one would be going to college. We still had shop classes (I never took one; I should have), but the trades were never an emphasized path.
DeleteI do think that one thing that has hurt smaller businesses is that Americans got addicted to lower prices and lost relationships with their local merchants. People in theory say they want to shop local often, but it is hard when "local" represents a higher price. That is where the relationship side of things comes into play.
Delivery driver 275 does not care at all what they are delivering, only that it is not damaged. Bob or Sue down at the local Ranch Supply do care that I get what I really need, not just because it is good business but because they want me to come back.
"Do not take on debt. Cut your expenses. Save your money." Oh, why oh why didn't I write that down, and post it somewhere I could always see it, 50 years ago? 8-).
ReplyDeleteI think if anyone ever asks me, "You're an old guy, got any wisdom to share," I hope I remember those three, short sentences. That's pretty much everything right there!
Warren, it is a set of laconic statements that make a great deal of sense. Alas, we are too often too young to take wisdom at its face value.
DeleteThe thing I like about Paul Wheaton is that he has an interesting and unique viewpoint about people and life, and he isn't afraid to express it.
ReplyDeleteThe goal of the gal in the video was making more money. Most people can relate to that because somehow we're all supposed to want more. Conversely, the same problem could be approached by learning to live with less. Except that likely doesn't compute with many people. But to address the problem, the choices are to either make more or spend less. Or go deeper into debt.
The problem with spending less and simplifying one's lifestyle is that it requires lifestyle contentment, and this isn't an option in many peoples' minds. Contentment is seen as complacency, and complacency is seen as a negative trait. Discontent, on the other hand, is seen as ambition, and that's a good trait to have.
The thing is, currently almost everybody has a sense that something is going to happen. That we live in uncertain times. That something unpleasant is going to happen. So our options are either to take measures to prepare for hard times, or just hope things will work out. I often think of how many Jews in Nazi Germany watched things get worse but chose to just sit tight, be compliant, and hope for the best.
Letting go of an affluent lifestyle is difficult. Getting out of debt takes a lot of self-discipline. It's easier to spend more than to spend less, and everybody has reasons why it's okay for others but not possible for them. Even so, historically it was gardeners and farmers who did best in times of political upheaval, war, and famine.
Leigh - Thank you very much for the thoughtful supply.
Delete"The problem with spending less and simplifying one's lifestyle is that it requires lifestyle contentment, and this isn't an option in many peoples' minds. Contentment is seen as complacency, and complacency is seen as a negative trait. Discontent, on the other hand, is seen as ambition, and that's a good trait to have." That illustrates the problem brilliantly. Contentment is not something that humans are generally prone to; even when they "seem" content, it often seems to be more of an acceptance of what is rather than a withering of the desire for more.
"The thing is, currently almost everybody has a sense that something is going to happen. That we live in uncertain times. That something unpleasant is going to happen." That has certainly been true for me lately, and I cannot specifically point a single thing...other than everything all at once. I have no reason to believe that personally my job is at risk, but I did not really the last two times something happened either.
"It's easier to spend more than to spend less, and everybody has reasons why it's okay for others but not possible for them. " Having used this sort of thinking more than once, I am very familiar with it. Even now, I often go through flurries of "what if?". At least now I have learned to confine them to lists that can be easily deleted or forgotten rather than acted on.
Paul certainly practices what he preaches and I always admire people who practice what they preach.
Sigh. "Thoughtful Supply" = "Thoughtful Reply" - although maybe I meant the supply of really good thoughts there (he says, trying to redeem the comment).
Delete